Daily Summary: Markets Euphoric Following a Breakthrough in U.S.-Iran Relations

🌍 Geopolitics and Regional Security

• The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary peace agreement, concluding a military conflict that has been ongoing since February.

• Under the agreement, a 60-day ceasefire has been established and is scheduled to take effect immediately.

• The official signing of the memorandum is set for Friday in Switzerland, with the text of the document expected to be published shortly after the ceremony.

• Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was the first to report the agreement, followed by confirmations from US President Donald Trump and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.

• According to declarations from Iranian authorities, military operations are to be terminated across all fronts, including Lebanon.

• Further negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, economic sanctions, and regional security issues are scheduled to take place in the coming weeks.

• A full peace treaty has not yet been signed; the current document functions only as a framework agreement and ceasefire, leaving the final resolution of Iran's nuclear program and future sanctions outstanding.

• During a bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit, French President Emmanuel Macron declared the readiness of the French armed forces to support securing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, contingent upon US approval and coordination, signaling Europe's willingness to actively participate in stabilizing the region.

• Israel remains the primary risk factor and a potential flashpoint, as several Israeli politicians view the agreement critically and openly emphasize that the framework established between the US and Iran is not binding for Israel, given that it does not address the nuclear program or the activities of Iranian-backed groups in the region.

• US President Donald Trump announced that the American administration's focus is beginning to shift from the conflict with Iran toward issues related to the Russia–Ukraine war, suggesting a potential increase in US involvement in the negotiation process following constructive discussions with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.

• Regarding Iran, Donald Trump pledged "strong oversight" over the implementation of the agreement, which will be closely monitored by the US and regional partners.

🚢 Infrastructure and Logistics (Strait of Hormuz)

• The agreement includes a provision for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which represents one of the most critical oil transit routes globally.

• Iran is scheduled to begin removing naval mines deployed in the waterway over recent weeks.

• For the duration of the ceasefire, the transit of commercial vessels is to proceed without additional fees levied by Iran.

• A senior US administration official confirmed that the final version of the agreement is expected to include a guarantee of free and fee-free vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

• The reopening of this maritime route is currently the most vital component of the agreement from the perspective of global financial and commodity markets, even though the long-term operational rules for the strait after the 60-day period remain undetermined.

📊 Macroeconomics

• Incoming reports of de-escalation in the Middle East are interpreted by markets as an opportunity for reduced risk of energy supply disruptions, a decline in inflationary pressures, and a lower probability of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed.

• US industrial production performed slightly weaker than expected, confirming that the industrial sector continues to face challenges stemming from high interest rates and economic uncertainty, though the overall structure of the report was mixed.

• Analysts note that the current market rally is largely sentiment-driven, as valuations rapidly price in a "less risk, more growth" scenario, responding to shifting geopolitical expectations and improved global macroeconomic conditions rather than tangible, hard economic data.

📈 Stock Market

• Wall Street commenced the week in a state of clear euphoria, with major equity indices rising sharply in response to diminishing geopolitical risk, which prompted a return to a "risk-on" environment (reducing exposure to defensive assets and rotating capital back into growth stocks).

• Technology companies occupied the center of attention, with pronounced gains recorded in the AI, memory (DRAM and HBM), semiconductor, and data center infrastructure sectors, which had previously been under corrective pressure.

• The chip sector significantly outperformed the broader market, and the tech rally extended to entities such as AMD, Micron, Intel, Arm, Western Digital, and Seagate.

• Tech sector investors are heavily pricing in the sustained artificial intelligence boom, expanding demand for data center memory, and a structural shortage of memory chips.

• The positive sentiment extended to European trading floors, where relatively large gains were logged by the German DAX and Spanish IBEX 35, both advancing by over 1%.

• The prominent exception on the old continent was the British FTSE 100, which recorded a decline of 0.4% and failed to finish the day in positive territory.

🛢️ Commodities and Hard Assets

• Crude oil prices fell sharply following the announcement of the peace agreement; upon disclosure of the deal between the US and Iran, oil quotes retreated by approximately 5% due to the reduction in supply disruption risks.

• Positive sentiment returned to the precious metals market, which saw decisive and powerful upward movements.

• Gold appreciated by nearly 3% and is testing the $4,350 per ounce level.

• Silver advanced by more than 3%, breaking through the $70 per ounce threshold.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Strong and decisive gains were also observed within the digital asset market.

• Ethereum rallied by over 6.5%, surpassing the $1,800 mark.

• Bitcoin recorded an advance of more than 2% and is testing the $67,000 level.