- Markets on both sides of the Atlantic appear to be entering a clear wait-and-see mode. The past week was full of twists and turns. The ceasefire in Iran remains fragile, and the start of next week will fully open a new earnings season. Investors are clearly trying to wait for more information,from both politics and companies, before making further decisions. US markets are posting modest declines; Dow futures are down the most, by around 0.6%.
- Market attention has clearly shifted back toward technology and AI. On a wave of promises and speculation regarding the capabilities of Anthropic’s products, a broad range of tech stocks is falling. These include, among others: Palantir, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, ServiceNow, and Cloudflare.
- CoreWeave is posting strong gains, rising as much as 12% on the back of new contracts from Meta and Anthropic.
- Macroeconomic data show signs of weakness in US economy:
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data for March. In line with market expectations, a jump in fuel and fertilizer prices lifted CPI inflation to 3.3%. The concentrated nature of this increase is confirmed by core inflation, which rose only to 2.6%.
- The University of Michigan survey showed negative consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations. Short-term inflation expectations increased to 4.8%, while consumer sentiment fell to 47.6—its lowest level in the history of the survey.
- Durable goods orders fell by 1.3%. Excluding a one-off increase in the fourth week of January, this marks eight consecutive readings with zero or negative growth in orders.
- The situation in Europe is similar, with most indices hovering close to their opening levels. The STOXX600 rose by 0.37%. The growth leader in Europe was the WIG20, which closed up as much as 1.25%.
- European defense stocks are seeing steep declines on the back of another round of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The sector leader, Rheinmetall, is down as much as 8%. Hensoldt and Leonardo are extending declines to around 5%.
- Data from Europe is limited. German consumer inflation came in in line with expectations, rising to 2.8%.
- In FX, the euro and the British pound are strengthening by about 0.2% on average versus major currency pairs. The Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar are the main laggards, down around 0.3%.
- In commodities:
- Most attention remains on oil. Despite the lack of a resolution regarding passage through the strait, oil remains below $100. WTI ends the session around $98, while Brent is around $96.
- Industrial metals are posting modest gains: copper is up about 1%, and aluminum is up nearly 2%.
- Gold is stable around $4,760, silver is up more than 1%, and platinum is down more than 1%.
- Moderately positive sentiment has returned to the crypto market. Bitcoin is up more than 1%, stabilizing around $73,000. Ethereum is up 1.6%, reaching $2,240. Solana is limiting gains to below 1% and ends the session at $84.5.
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