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Daily summary: Oil retreats, investors brace for NFP report

19:00 4 August 2022
  • Oil prices extended yesterday’s declines and are approaching the mid-July lows. WTI oil fell below $ 88 and Brent below $ 94
  • This downward move was mainly caused by the announcement that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have large production capacities, but there is no need to use them at the moment. According to these countries, higher oil production could be useful in the event of a potential supply crisis during the winter.

  • Natural gas stockpiles increased more than expected in the US, but still did not reach the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Europe, Gazprom continues to point to major infrastructure problems regarding gas transfers via NS1

  • The Czech National Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 7%, which suggests that interest rates in Poland may also remain unchanged

  • The Bank of England, as expected, raised the rate by 50 basis points and more rate hikes are expected this year

  • On the other hand, the BoE points to a recession in Q4, which is expected to last until the end of 2023. The pound weakened after the decision

  • The recently rising yields are not affecting gold which is again heading towards $1,800 per ounce

  • Alibaba's solid quarterly performance overshadowed problems of the Chinese economy, at least for the time being. Nevertheless, there is a very high risk that the Chinese economy will get into really big trouble in the autumn. Meanwhile, China launched military exercises around Taiwan and Japan has indicated that missiles have invaded its economic zone

  • US weekly jobless claims continued to increase. The initial claims jumped to the level of 260,000, while continuation claims exceeded 1.4 million

  • The dollar weakened after the release of these data and the EURUSD pair is struggling to stay above 1.02

  • Tommorows NFP should provide more information whether the US recession will remain technical or situation is even more severe

  • Ed Mester said that US is not in the recession, however recession risks have increased

  • Coin Shares intends to work with the largest asset management company BlackRock. The cryptocurrency exchange shares jumped more than 25% as a result 

  • However Bitcoin failed to capitalize on this news and broke below the 23k level.

  • Mixed moods prevail on the  major stock exchanges today.  European indices finished slightly higher, however major Wall Street indexes are trading lower after shaky start, partially due to poor sentiment surrounding Apple stocks

OIL.WTI fell over 3.5% during today’s session and is currently testing key support at $88.15 which is marked with previous price reactions and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in December 2021. Source: xStation5

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