- Sentiment on the U.S. stock market indicates a solid rebound after yesterday's declines. The S&P 500 index is up by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 is rising by over 1.7%. Tesla shares are gaining more than 3% ahead of the financial results the company will report after the U.S. session. Among Big Tech stocks, Apple, Amazon, and Meta Platforms are up by 3-3.5%.
- Along with U.S. indices, futures contracts on Asian benchmarks are also up by around 2%, with JP225 and CHN.cash showing gains. In Europe, the increases are slightly lower, but the cash DAX managed to close the session 0.4% higher, supported by a higher opening of the U.S. stock market.
- The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April came in significantly below expectations (-13, forecast: -6, previous: -4), erasing the improvement from the last quarter. The service sector sentiment also declined (-7, previous: -4). EURUSD is down almost 0.6% among investors are buying US assets including US dollar again after Easter
- Fed's Kashkari stated that he is shifting from a dovish stance to a more hawkish one, citing an analysis of recent data. He assessed that if the U.S. moves away from its trade deficit with countries, it is likely to lose its status as the best place for investment. However, he mentioned that it is still uncertain whether this will happen.
- Also, Kashkari signalled that "We're seeing the sharpest fall in confidence since March 2020. Bond yield up and dollar down indicates some reassment of where global investors want to invest."
- "We are not seeing a recession in the Eurozone," said Christine Lagarde today. According to the ECB President, inflation in the Eurozone will return to the 2% target this year, and the impact of tariffs on price dynamics remains difficult to determine. However, tariffs are weighing on growth prospects.
- On the forex market, we are seeing the stabilization of the U.S. dollar, which is rebounding against nearly all G10 currencies (USDIDX: +0.5%). The exception is the Canadian dollar (USDCAD: -0.17%), which is gaining in light of comments from Prime Minister Carney that Canada’s budget will return to surplus if the Liberals win the upcoming elections. The Swiss franc (USDCHF: +1.05%) is experiencing the largest correction.
- The International Monetary Fund has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast to 1.8% for 2025, down from 2.7% YoY previously. It noted that the risk of a recession this year has increased to around 40%, up from the 27% estimated in October 2024, though this is not a foregone scenario.
- The Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) fell by -1% MoM in March, compared to an expected 0.1% and 0.3% previously (4.7% YoY compared to 4.9% previously).
- The USDSEK pair tested 3-year lows after Swedish data for March (seasonally adjusted) showed an unexpectedly low unemployment rate of 8.1% versus the forecast of 8.7% and 8.9% previously.
- Oil dropped slightly after reports from the Financial Times indicated that Vladimir Putin is ready to offer Ukraine peace by halting borders along the current front line. NATGAS is down almost 2% today. Cocoa futures surged almost 5% on ICE, while Coffee ended the session nearly 3% higher.
- Bitcoin rose to nearly $92,000, driven by strong demand for ETF funds in the U.S. Yesterday's net inflows exceeded $380 million, the first time since January 30, 2025. Ethereum gained 7% to nearly $1,700.
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