Daily summary: Wall Street and oil loses partially recover as markets unwind some recessionary bets after US ISM data; USDJPY tanks 1.6%

• Asian indices recovered some of their losses after a dismal opening of the week, where the Nikkei index retreated nearly 13%. Currently, JAP225 futures are losing -9% and have managed to make up some of their earlier losses
• European indices are on a strong downward trajectory today, but the scale of the sell-off weakened in the afternoon hours. The DAX and FTSE lost around 2%, while the CAC40 lost around 1.5%. Poland's WIG20 retreated 4.5% at the height of the panic, but eventually closed Monday's session at -3.1% at 2266 points. Biggest
• Wall Street is recovering from a deep sell-off, but is still trading under pressure. The US100 and US30 are losing about 2.3%. ISM data gave markets more relief and reduced recession fears, although the ISM Services Price Subindex reading for July of 57 points signals unexpected, entrenching price pressures and may indicate that the Fed will not think about any 'dovish intervention' soon

US ISM services report for July came in 51.4 vs 51 exp. and 48,8 previously

• US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 57 (Forecast 55.1, Previous 56.3)
• US ISM Services Employment Actual 51.1 (Forecast 46.4, Previous 46.1)
• US ISM Services New Orders Actual 52.4 (Forecast 49.8, Previous 47.3)

• Austan Goolsbee of the Fed indicated that Fed policy is already restrictive, and if necessary, the bank will intervene by loosening policy. However, he stressed that the data still suggest fairly solid economic growth, and that the risk of recession is limited. He also conveyed the need to 'not overreact' to a reading of just one month, and signaled a 'data wait-and-see' mode
• Nvidia shares are losing nearly 6% today,back above $100 per share. At the peak of the sell-off, declines reached nearly 12%. TheInformation reports indicate that the company will postpone shipments of AI Blackwell GPU chips from 2024 to early 2025, to which the market initially reacted very negatively, pricing the chances of a slowdown higher, next year
• The USDJPY pair is experiencing tremendous volatility today and is trading -1.6% oversold to 144. The declines are supported by a weaker dollar and a strengthening yen, which was further supported by capital outflows from the Nikkei index, after a near 13% crash
• EURUSD failed to break above 1.10 and is trading at 1.095 today. Better-than-forecast ISM data strengthened the dollar and limited the eurodollar's rally to 0.26%. The dollar index is trading near 0.4% declines 
• Goldman Sachs analysts see rate cuts of 25 bps at the September, November and December meetings; they had previously expected 25 bps cuts every quarter. 
• However, they stressed that August should bring a seasonal rebound in the labor market, and the current risk of recession is limited. The bank assessed it at around 25%, raising the probability rating from 15% previously
• Precious metals mostly record declines; silver loses more than 5% and gold loses about 1.5%, but remains above $2,400 per troy ounce
• Yields on 2-year U.S. bonds have risen above 10-year U.S. Treasury securities, raising fears of a recession. Yields on 10-year US bonds fell below 3.8% today
• Recession fears initially weakened the oil market, causing Brent to fall to $75 per barrel, but the downward momentum is 'cushioning' the possibility of wider conflict and escalation in the Middle East. Germany today instructed citizens to evacuate from around Lebanon
• Cryptocurrencies are seeing strong sell-offs today, with Ethereum retreating to around $2,400 and Bitcoin to $49,000 at the height of the panic, currently trading around $55,000 and managing to bounce around 10% from multi-month lows. Lookonchain data shows that 22,779 ETH and more than 1,200 BTC flowed out of US ETFs today.

Source: xStation5