Economic calendar: all eyes on ECB and Philly Fed (17.04.2025)

On Thursday, macroeconomics comes back into the limelight. After the unexpectedly high drop in energy prices in Germany, the session in Europe will be all about the European Central Bank’s policy decision, expected to lower all key interest rates by 25 bp. Investors will closely watch the ECB President’s press conference in the search of new narratives on both Euro Area growth, as well as the outlook under tariff uncertainty. 

In the U.S., on the other hand, we are ahead of a Philly Fed Index for Manufacturing release, expected to drop significantly. The jobless claims data is presumed to keep last week’s level, though any surprise would be interpreted directly in the context of Jerome Powell yesterday’s statement expressing worry about double-sided risk to the U.S. economy.

Economic calendar for today:

06:00 AM GMT, Germany - Inflation Data for March:

• German PPI: actual -0.7% MoM; forecast -0.1% MoM; previous -0.1% MoM;

• German PPI: actual -0.2% YoY; forecast 0.4% YoY; previous 0.5% YoY;

08:30 AM GMT, United Kingdom - BOE Credit Conditions Survey

12:15 PM GMT, Euro Zone - ECB Interest Rate Decision for April:

• forecast 2.40%; previous 2.65%;

12:15 PM GMT, Euro Zone - ECB Marginal Lending Facility for March:

• previous 2.90%;

12:15 PM GMT, Euro Zone - Deposit Facility Rate for April:

• forecast 2.25%; previous 2.50%;

12:15 PM GMT, Euro Zone - ECB Monetary Policy Statement

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April:

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: forecast 2.2; previous 12.5;

• Prices Paid: previous 48.30;

• New Orders: previous 8.7;

• Employment: previous 19.7;

• CAPEX Index: previous 13.40;

• Business Conditions: previous 5.6;

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data:

• Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 225K; previous 223K;

• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 223.00K;

• Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,870K; previous 1,850K;

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Housing Starts for March:

• previous 11.2% MoM;

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Housing Starts for March:

• forecast 1.420M; previous 1.501M;

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Building Permits for March:

• forecast 1.450M; previous 1.459M;

12:30 PM GMT, United States - Building Permits for March:

• previous -1.0% MoM;

12:30 PM GMT, Canada - Foreign Securities Purchases for February:

• forecast 12.89B; previous 7.91B;

12:30 PM GMT, Canada - Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians for February:

• previous -3.150B;

12:45 PM GMT, Euro Zone - ECB Press Conference

02:15 PM GMT, Euro Zone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

02:30 PM GMT, United States - GDP data:

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): forecast -2.2%; previous -2.2%;

02:30 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:

• Natural Gas Storage: forecast 24B; previous 57B;

03:45 PM GMT, United States - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks

05:00 PM GMT, United States - U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count:

• previous 583;

05:00 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:

• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: previous 480;

05:00 PM GMT, United States - 5-Year TIPS Auction:

• previous 2.121%;

08:30 PM GMT, United States - Fed's Balance Sheet:

• previous 6,727B;

08:30 PM GMT, United States - Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks:

• previous 3.484T;

11:30 PM GMT, Japan - Inflation Data for March:

• National CPI: previous 3.7% YoY;

• National Core CPI: forecast 3.2% YoY; previous 3.0% YoY;

• National CPI: previous -0.1% MoM;

• CPI, n.s.a: previous -0.4% MoM;