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Economic calendar: Another day, another vote

07:43 14 March 2019

Summary:
- UK parliament will vote on whether to postpone Brexit
- Semi-important US data to be released in the afternoon
- BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins to speak at night

In Thursday’s economic calendar we will only find some second-tier readings that seldom tend to move markets. However, the UK assets are likely to remain volatile as the UK parliament will hold last key vote today. Failure to back motion for Brexit postponement today will make outcome of yesterday’s vote meaningless.

Brexit vote (evening, around 5:00 pm GMT)

The UK lawmakers rejected the possibility of crashing out of the European Union without an agreement in place. However, there are little reasons to cheer as should they fail to back the deal or extension the Brexit will occur on 29 March anyway. Today the UK parliament will vote whether to postpone country’s exit beyond current deadline or not. It is widely expected that MPs will back the motion. The length of possible extension will depend on progress of negotiations. In case the deal can be reworked and approved by 20 March only a three-month extension is likely to occur. However, in case no deal is approved by the eve of EU leaders summit (20 March), a long postponement is the base case scenario. Debate on the motion is scheduled to last until around 5:00 pm GMT and the vote will be held afterwards.

Readings scheduled for Thursday:
- 7:45 am GMT - France, CPI inflation for February (revision). Expected: 1.3% YoY, previous 1.3% YoY
- 8:30 am GMT - Sweden, Unemployment rate for February. Expected: 6.5%, previous 6.5%
- 1:30 pm GMT - US, Weekly Jobless Claims. Expected: 225k, previous: 223k
- 3:00 pm GMT - US, New home sales for January. Expected: 620k, previous: 621k

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 4:00 pm GMT - Riksbank’s Ohlsson
- 4:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Visco
- 10:50 pm GMT - BoC’s Wilkins

The British pound is subject to significant volatility spikes this week due to a range of Brexit votes - 1.2% was a scale of the smallest GBPUSD daily move this week. The pair revisited 1.33 area following yesterday’s vote and some kind of a pullback can be observed today. Note that failure to back today’s motion may put significant pressure on the pair as no-deal Brexit will return to be the base case scenario. Source: xStation5

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