Economic calendar: Avalanche of data from the EU and US

Summary:

• PMIs from euro area and the United States to be released today

• ECB publishes minutes from the latest meeting

• Governors of BoC and RBA scheduled to speak

Today’s calendar is flooded with data from the euro area and the United States. Inflation, PMIs, housing data, central banks, labour market - there is data for everyone today. Apart from that, DOE report will be released today due to holiday in the United States on Wednesday. Last but not least, a number of central bankers will deliver speeches today including governors of Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, and Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz.

Data from the euro area and EBC minutes

A number of data releases from the eurozone member countries has been scheduled for today. Investors will be offered final inflation data for January from France (7:45 am GMT) and Italy (9:00 am GMT). In both cases no deviation from preliminary values is expected. Traders should watch European markets at 9:00 am GMT as preliminary PMI indices for February will be released. Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop 0.2 pts to 50.3 pts while services gauge should tick higher from 51.2 pts to 51.4 pts. However, this will not be the end of reports from the Old Continent. The European Central Bank will release minutes from the latest meeting at 1:30 pm GMT. All of this data combined with speeches from the ECB Chief Economist, Peter Praet, will provide a nice update on the state of the European economy and how it copes with the looming slowdown.

Data from the United States

While abundance of the European data prints today is unusual, similar round (or even bigger) will be served during the US trading hours. Initial jobless claims and Philly Fed will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. The former is expected to come in at 229k while the latter is forecasted to drop from 17 pts to 14 pts. Simultaneously, preliminary durable goods orders data will be published and it should show a minor advance. Sometime later (2:45 pm GMT) the US preliminary PMI indices will see daylight. Manufacturing index is expected to deteriorate a little and drop to 54.7 pts while services gauge should inch higher from 54.2 pts to 54.3 pts. Existing home sales data (4:00 pm GMT) for January will round up the calendar and it is expected to come in at 5 million.

DOE report on oil inventories

Offices in the United States were shut on Monday due to President’s Day holiday so DOE report is going to be released with a one-day delay this week. Supply issues in Venezuela as well as decent pace of output cuts by OPEC+ lifted crude prices to 3-month highs. While yesterday’s API print showed significant build in inventories, private estimates somewhat diverged from official reports as of late. Market consensus, however, expects a major increase in crude stockpiles (+3.1 mb) and significant declines in gasoline (-1.1 mb) and distillate (-1.7 mb) inventories. Report will be released at 4:00 pm GMT.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

• 8:00 am GMT - ECB’s Praet

• 12:50 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic

• 1:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Praet

• 5:45 pm GMT - BoC Governor Poloz

• 10:30 pm GMT - RBA Governor Lowe

EURUSD climbed back into its recent trading range. However, the main currency pair still trades within close vicinity of the lower limit of this range. A EUR-negative outcome of today’s data releases could put current upward movement at risk. 1.1300-1.1315 price zone can be seen as the closest support while 50-period moving average (green line on the chart above) may be the first hurdle for bulls. Source: xStation5