Economic calendar: Fed and BoC interest rate decisions 📣

Today kicks off an intense second half of the week in terms of macroeconomic and financial releases. The most important event will be the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, scheduled for 7:00 PM BST, also before we learn the Bank of Canada’s decision.

Markets are fully pricing in a pause in further rate cuts. However, the press conference and the vote breakdown among FOMC members may prove more significant. Investors will be looking for clues suggesting a possible resumption of monetary easing at the next meeting in September.

The second key event will be the release of the first Q2 GDP report from the U.S. After weak Q1 data—driven by lower consumption and a record negative net export figure (due to anticipated tariffs)—the market is hoping for a rebound in the second quarter.

Detailed calendar for the day:

07:00 AM BST, Germany - Retail Sales Data for June:

• German Retail Sales: forecast 0.5% MoM; previous -1.6% MoM;
• German Retail Sales: previous 1.6% YoY;

08:00 AM BST, Spain - Inflation Data for July:

• Spanish CPI: previous 0.7% MoM;
• Spanish CPI: forecast 2.3% YoY; previous 2.3% YoY;
• Core CPI: previous 2.2% YoY;
• Spanish HICP: previous 0.7% MoM;
• Spanish HICP: forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.3% YoY;

09:00 AM BST, Germany - GDP data:

• German GDP (Q2): forecast -0.1% QoQ; previous 0.4% QoQ;
• German GDP (Q2): forecast 0.2% YoY; previous 0.0% YoY;

10:00 AM BST, Euro Zone - GDP data:

• GDP (Q2): forecast 1.2% YoY; previous 1.5% YoY;
• GDP (Q2): forecast 0.0% QoQ; previous 0.6% QoQ;

01:15 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for July:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 77K; previous -33K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - GDP data:

• GDP Sales (Q2): previous -3.1%;
• GDP (Q2): forecast 2.5% QoQ; previous -0.5% QoQ;
• GDP Price Index (Q2): forecast 2.2% QoQ; previous 3.8% QoQ;
• Real Consumer Spending (Q2): previous 0.5%;
• PCE Prices (Q2): previous 3.7%;
• Core PCE Prices (Q2): forecast 2.40%; previous 3.50%;

02:45 PM BST, Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision for December:

• forecast 2.75%; previous 2.75%;

02:45 PM BST, Canada - BoC Rate Statement

02:45 PM BST, Canada - BoC Monetary Policy Report

03:00 PM BST, United States - Pending Home Sales Index for June:

• forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 1.8% MoM;

03:30 PM BST, Canada - BOC Press Conference

07:00 PM BST, United States - Fed Interest Rate Decision for December:

• forecast 4.50%; previous 4.50%;

07:00 PM BST, United States - FOMC Statement

07:30 PM BST, United States - FOMC Press Conference