Economic calendar: Focus on oil data and ECB speakers

Summary:

• The US consumer confidence expected to decline moderately

• API data forecasted to show a drop in inventories

• Several speeches from ECB members

Taking a look at the economic calendar on Tuesday one can assume that it will be rather calm day. Apart from the US consumer confidence survey and API oil stocks data no major readings will be released today. However, as the trade spat between China and the US intensifies investors should watch the news flow carefully for remarks from the officials of the two countries. Moreover, common currency may be subject to increased volatility as several speeches from ECB members are scheduled for today (recall how comments from Mario Draghi boosted euro yesterday).

3:00 pm BST - US, CB Consumer Confidence for September. The UoM consumer sentiment gauge saw some weakness this year as it dropped significantly at the beginning of the second quarter but managed to climb back to the previous levels in September. The same cannot be said about the Conference Board reading. CB consumer confidence index moved to the 133.4 pts in the previous month, the highest level since late-2000. After the gauge jumped from 127.9 pts to 133.4 pts in August market consensus expects it will drop moderately in September pointing for a reading of 132.2 pts.

9:40 pm BST - API weekly oil stocks. Issues connected with Iranian exports as well as trade conflict between China and the United States continue to push commodity prices higher, including oil. Brent broke above this year highs yesterday and is trading at the highest level in almost 4 years. After such strong gains commodity prices could be more sensitive to corrective impulses therefore traders should pay double attention to the inventory data. API estimates are expected to show a 1.6 mb decline in the inventories.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

• 9:10 am BST - ECB’s Praet

• 9:40 am BST - BOE’s Vlieghe

• 10:00 am BST - Norges Bank Governor Olsen

• 11:45 am BST - ECB’s Praet

• 1:30 pm BST - ECB’s Praet

• 3:40 pm BST - ECB’s Coeure

• 5:00 pm BST - ECB’s Coeure

• 5:30 pm BST - Riksbank’s Jansson

EURUSD surged yesterday during Mario Draghi’s speech. However, the gain was later erased and an evening star pattern was painted. Notice how similar candlestick pattern heralded a period of declines at the beginning of July (orange circles on the chart above). Source: xStation5