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Economic calendar: FOMC minutes and UK inflation to steal the show

07:39 22 May 2019

Summary:

  • UK inflation is expected to accelerate in April
  • FOMC minutes to reveal more details when it comes to a future course in monetary policy
  • Weekly change of US oil inventories on the agenda this afternoon

9:30 am BST - UK inflation: Admittedly the British pound is being steered by the incoming Brexit revelations, one should not forget about very important macroeconomic readings like the inflation report. The understanding is clear: if the Brexit thread finished, then market participants’ attention will be again paid more to data. Core price growth is expected to have sped up to 1.9% in annual terms compared to 1.8% in March, whereas headline price growth is forecast to have grown 2.2% YoY after rising 1.9% YoY in the previous month.

1:30 pm BST - Canadian retail sales: We have not seen a clear trend in the USDCAD market so far this month. Keep in mind that Canadian monetary policy is strongly dependent on what happens in the US. Hence, the elevated expectations regarding a rate cut in the US (the view does not seem to be shared by the Fed itself) have weighed on the CAD too. Strong macroeconomic readings are necessary to convince the BoC to resume its monetary tightening process. In March headline retail sales are expected to have picked up 1.2% MoM, while core sales (ex. auto) have increased 0.9% MoM.

3:30 pm BST - weekly DoE release: Oil prices have been trading in a consolidation in recent days as concerns surrounding the global economic slowdown have been soothed after a slew of GDP releases from all around the world (GDP data surprised to the upside in the US and Europe). In turn, in the short-term data on a change in oil inventories from the US may also affect the commodity price. The consensus before today’s reading suggests US inventories to have fallen by 2.5 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have fallen by 1.5 million barrels.

7:00 pm BST - FOMC minutes: In defiance to widespread expectations the Federal Reserve was not so dovish at its meeting in the beginning of May. Therefore, it is interesting what Fed members were talking about with regard to risks to the US economy. Any hints suggesting a need to loosen monetary policy could harm the greenback.  Bear in mind that the buck is trading at demanding levels, hence risks surrounding today’s event could be tilted to the downside.

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 8:30 am BST - ECB’s Draghi

  • 9:30 am BST - ECB’s Visco

  • 10:30 am BST - ECB’s Praet

  • 3:00 pm BST - Fed’s Williams

  • 3:00 pm BST - Fed’s Bostic

This content has been created by X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski S.A. This service is provided by X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski S.A. (X-Trade Brokers Brokerage House joint-stock company), with its registered office in Warsaw, at Ogrodowa 58, 00-876 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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