Summary:
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OPEC meeting and NFP report release in the spotlight this week
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Range of manufacturing PMI indices to be published today
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Several Fed members scheduled to speak
Markets are back from the G20 meeting but there’s no time to rest: full calendar of the US data plus central bank decision will keep investors focused. The most important event is the OPEC meeting where producers will be under pressure to react to slumping oil prices.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appImportant readings scheduled for Monday:
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9:00 am GMT - Euro zone, manufacturing PMI for November. Expectations: 51.5 pts. Previous reading: 51.5 pts
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9:30 am GMT - UK, manufacturing PMI for November. Expectations: 51.6 pts. Previous reading: 51.1 pts
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3:00 pm GMT - US, ISM manufacturing for November. Expectations: 57.5 pts. Previous reading: 57.7 pts.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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11:30 am GMT - Fed’s Clarida
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1:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Quarles
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2:15 pm GMT - Fed’s Williams
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3:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Brainard
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6:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan
What to watch for the remainder of the week?
OPEC meeting (Thursday)
Oil prices literally fell off a cliff in October and November when it became apparent that impact of sanctions on Iran is not that big and there’s plenty of oil from other sources. A steep sell-off starts to resemble the 2014/15 case so the OPEC must realize that cutting the “too much oil” story is a must before prices fall into the 40s. Markets await the production cut of at least 1mbd - anything less will renew a downward spiral. Affected markets: OIL, OIL.WTI.
US NFP report (Friday, 1:30 pm BST) and other data
Fed’s Jerome Powell confirmed market speculations that a pace of rate increases may slow down next year and weakened the dollar in a result. Traders will watch the NFP to see if the case of just one rate hike in 2019 is plausible. Investors should especially watch the wage data where a further acceleration could question the dovish policy. Other key reports include the ISM (Monday), ISM services and the ADP (Wednesday) and durable orders (Thursday). Affected markets: EURUSD, GOLD.
Central bank decisions: Australia (Tuesday, 3:30am BST), Canada (Wednesday, 3pm BST)
These central banks are not expected to change interest rates in December - unlike the US Fed. However, they can set expectations for 2019, especially the Bank of Canada that has been quite hawkish recently. In Canada traders should also focus on local payrolls that will be published along with the US NFP. Affected markets: AUDUSD, USDCAD.
Thanks to USD weakness on Monday morning the main currency pair managed to bounce reasonably higher. EURUSD may be set to test the swing level around 1.14 handle in case current sentiment prevails. Source: xStation5
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