Summary:
-
DOE data to show a decent drop in oil inventories
-
FOMC widely expected to stay on hold
-
Tesla (TSLA.US) to submit earnings report after market close
With rumours saying that Donald Trump may add fuel to fire by raising tariff rates the data may become secondary. Nevertheless, one should pay attention to the macroeconomic releases as their immediate impact on the prices is unquestionable. Throughout the day final PMI readings for July will be released but such advanced revisions rarely tend to move the market. Apart from that, investors will be served a weekly piece of data on oil inventories from DOE as well as FOMC decision. Last but not least, the US employment change data by ADP is scheduled for release at 1:15 pm BST and it may be used as a hint ahead of Friday’s NFP report (expected 186k increase in employment).
9:30 am BST - UK, Manufacturing PMI for July. While the most of the European countries’ PMIs are released as preliminary data and then final reading takes the stage the UK ones are published just once. The gauge is expected to decline slightly from 54.4 pts in June to 54.2 pts in July. Recall that BoE is expected to finally deliver a rate hike during upcoming August meeting therefore a deterioration in the soft data may push the odds of this happening lower.
3:00 pm BST - US, ISM manufacturing index for July. After a brief pullback the manufacturing index measured by the Institute of the Supply Management pushed higher in June. The gauge stays not far away from its multi-year highs. According to the mediane estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg agency today’s reading should show a moderate slide from 60.2 pts in June to 59.3 pts in July what may reflect risks connected to the trade dispute between China and the US.
3:30 pm BST - DOE oil inventories. Yesterday’s API reading missed the estimate of 3.2m drop by showing a significant build in the oil inventories. In turn a major pull back on the oil market occurred bringing WTI price down to the $68 per barrel. However, today’s data is expected to help oil bulls as it should show a 2.26m decline of oil stocks. Distillate inventory is expected to increase by 125k while gasoline stockpiles should shrink by 2.26m.
7:00 pm BST - FOMC decision. Today’s meeting is not expected to produce any change in the US monetary policy settings as Fed announced earlier that any changes to the level of interest rates will be conducted during meetings followed by press conference (next one in September). However, statement released along with the decision may hint whether central bankers are going to stick to the current consensus of 4 hikes in 2018 or not. Do notice that it will be the first meeting after the US President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve for its policy.
Notable US companies reporting earnings today:
-
Tesla (TSLA.US)
-
T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)
OIL.WTI took a hit yesterday after API data show an unexpected build in oil inventories. The price has pulled back towards the lower limit of the upward price channel. Today’s DOE data may be bulls’ last chance to maintain the range of the channel and prevent deterioration of the technical landscape. Source: xStation5
Disclaimer
This article is provided for general information purposes only. Any opinions, analyses, prices or other content is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Any research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Any information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and any person acting on this information does so entirely at their own risk, we do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
