Summary:
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Donald Trump to meet with Vladimir Putin today
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Retail sales from the US expected to show another advance
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Marathon of data from the UK throughout the week
Donald Trump keeps being in the spotlight. In the previous week we saw him shaking up the NATO summit as well as making comments in relation to a so-called soft Brexit. This week the US President will meet with his Russian counterpart and according to some reports oil talks may be on the agenda. Apart from that, investors will be served data from the US today.
1:30 pm BST - US, Retail Sales for June. The latest retail sales readings from the US have shown a decent strength of demand in the economy at the retail level. After beating the consensus of 0.4% MoM in May by coming in at 0.8% MoM the gauge is expected to show another month of advance. In June retail sales are expected to increase by 0.5% MoM while the core measure is expected to show 0.4% increase. Do notice that on the YoY basis the latest reading saw almost 5.9% YoY and if this month’s reading can boost this number above 6.1% this would be the highest since early-2012.
Events to watch for the remainder of the week:
Data from the UK economy (from Tuesday to Thursday)
The upcoming week will be intense for GBP traders. On Tuesday labour market report for May will be released followed by the CPI inflation reading that is expected to inch higher. On top of that, retail sales figures will be published on Thursday. Given that the market odds for a rate hike in August stand in the vicinity of 80% an upbeat data stream could encourage Bank of England members to consider further tightening. Affected markets: GBPUSD, UK100.
Canadian inflation and retail sales (Friday, 1:30 pm BST)
Bank of Canada decided to lift interest rates during its July’s meeting. More monetary tightening may be on the pipeline as BoC policy follows Fed’s to some extent and the latter may raise the borrowing cost two more times this year. While traders do not assign too much probability to a hike during the September’s meeting, the market odds for a hike in the final quarter of the year has already surpassed 60%. The desired pace of price growth seems to be there as the CPI inflation sits subtly above the BoC target. Affected markets: USDCAD, EURCAD.
Meetings and appearances of prominent people
During the week there will be two unusual events that are definitely worth watching for. On Monday the US President Donald Trump will meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. The agenda of the meeting has not been officially announced but according to some leaks talks concerning balance on the oil market may be held. The second event worth watching is the Fed’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee scheduled for Tuesday. The event tends to draw attention and this is especially true when it comes to this year as it will be the first semi-annual testimony of Jerome Powell. Affected markets: OIL, EURUSD.
EURUSD still trades in the consolidation ranging between 1.1510 and 1.1810. The pair is approaching the resistance level at 1.1710 therefore investors should pay double attention once the data is released. Source: xStation5
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