📆 US PCE data for January due at 1:30 pm GMT
The US dollar is one of the best performing G10 currencies around two hours ahead of the release of US core PCE data for January. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and data for January will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. Personal income and spending data for January will be released simultaneously. However, it should be noted that as US CPI data for January has been already released, and set expectations for PCE, today's PCE print may not have as much impact on the markets. A point to note is that headline PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0% YoY and it would be the first non-deflationary after three months of lower readings. Core PCE is seen ticking lower from 4.4 to 4.3% YoY. Also, January is expected to be a month that sees a decent jump in personal spending, after December's drop, which is a positive signal regarding conditions of US consumers.
1:30 pm GMT - US data pack for January.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile app- Headline PCE. Expected: 5.0% YoY. Previous: 5.0% YoY
- PCE Core. Expected: 4.3% YoY. Previous: 4.4% YoY
- Personal Income. Expected: 0.9% MoM. Previous: 0.2% MoM
- Personal Spending. Expected: 1.2% MoM. Previous: -0.2% MoM
While US core PCE reading for January is a key macro release of the day, it may not be the main source of USD volatility today. A number of Fed members are set to deliver speeches in the afternoon. Among today's speakers one can find some of Fed's biggest hawks, like Mester or Bullard, so there is a chance for remarks that could boost USD and pressure Wall Street.
EURUSD
EURUSD has been struggling recently amid outperformance of the US dollar. Pair pulled back around 4% since the beginning of the month and is heading for the first monthly drop since September 2022. A strong US data, combined with hawkish comments from Fed speakers later today, could provide more fuel for EURUSD sell-off. In such a scenario, the next support level to watch can be found at 38.2% retracement of a recent upward impulse (1.0460 area). Source: xStation5
US100
Nasdaq-100 (US100) has been underperforming as of late. However, a recent pullback may have found a bottom as the index began to struggle with pushing below the 38.2% retracement of recent upward correction (12,100 pts area). The 200-period moving average (purple line, H4 interval) can be found slightly below the aforementioned retracement and further boosts significance of 12,100 pts zone as a support. A better-than-expected US data today could be negative for Wall Street as it would give the Fed more room to continue tightening. Source: xStation5
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
