Secretary of State Blinken has spoken very important words about Iran. He emphasized the last words of President Biden, who indicated that Iran must be the first to re-respect the provisions of the nuclear deal. At the time of its fulfillment, the United States will also respect the provisions, i.e. the sanctions will be lifted.
Blinken points out that there is still a very long way to go, and Iran is far from reaching the agreement on many fronts. Mere willingness to impose restrictions on the nuclear field is not enough to convince the United States. Also important, Blinen believes that Iran is likely to increase exports, but only on a small scale (currently exports are very small, well below 1 mb / d). When Iran takes action, the United States has yet to build a team of experts to check whether the provisions have been respected. Therefore, we should not expect that there will be a significant increase in production from Iran either in the second or third quarter of this year. Therefore, if the agreement on cutting production is respected by the members of OPEC +, the oil market should run into a deficit, which opens the way to further increases in the coming months.
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Key statements from Blinken. Source: Twitter
Crude oil has been trading sideways recently. What is important, however, is that even with the dollar, the price of oil remains high. This means that the fundamentals of the recent short-term gains remain firm. From a technical point of view, the price should be heading towards resistance at $ 60 a barrel. We are currently observing a triangle formation, the breakout of which should lead to a breach of the upper limit of the strong supply zone (still below $ 60 per barrel). Meanwhile, the upward trend line and 53.00 USD level act as support. Seasonality indicates that increases should be visible at least until mid-February. The RSI left the overbought zone. Source: xStation5
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