MACRO: US jobless claims are hovering at their lowest in five decades

The number of Americans newly seeking jobless benefits last week shot back up to 222k from a five-decade low of 194k in the previous period and below analysts’ estimates of 240k. Still claims remained near pre-pandemic 2019 weekly average of about 220k, reflecting the continued recovery in the US labor market. The 4-week moving average of claims, which removes week-to-week volatility, dropped to 238.75k, a new pandemic low. Continuing jobless claims, which measure unemployed people who have been receiving unemployment benefits for a while, fell to 1.956 million in the week ending November 20th, from a revised 2.063 million a week before and below market expectations of 2.000 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Number of new claims jumped from a 53-year low at 194k to 222k last week, however still remain near their pre-pandemic levels. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge

The total number of people receiving some kind of unemployment benefit is still above 2 million. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge

Today's data comes one day before the November's NFP report. Analysts forecast that approximately 500k jobs were created last month, slightly less compared to the 531k recorded in October, as strong consumer demand fueled steady spending. One needs to remember that both reports reflect the state of the economy before the emergence of the omicron strain. At the moment it is difficult to assess how the new variant will affect the ongoing economic recovery until more is known about the severity of symptoms it causes and how vaccines fare against it. However, at the moment there are many indications that the appearance of omicron is unlikely to change the outlook for FED monetary policy. Therefore another strong NFP report could be another reason to accelerate the pace of tapering which eventually will allow for earlier rate hikes.