MACRO: US Weekly Jobless Claims remain elevated

18:25 4 March 2021

First-time filings for unemployment insurance in the week ended Feb. 27 rose to 745k from the previous week's revised figure of 736k, slightly below  analysts’ estimates of 750k, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Texas recorded the highest increase in claims  due to the recent winter storms while the situation in Missouri showed a significant improvement. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the number of claims was up to 748k, compared with 717k in the previous week. Also, about 437k citizens applied for help from the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance scheme, which covers workers that do not qualify for initial claims, compared with 427k in the previous period.

Despite sharp declines since March's peak numbers, initial claims remain elevated above their pre-coronavirus levels. Source: US Department of Labour
 

Continuing jobless claims which lag initial jobless claims data by one week, dropped to 4.295 million, down from 4.419 million a week before and slightly below market expectations of 4.300 million.  But that was mainly due to people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states.

Continuing claims continue to improve however still remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile pandemic emergency claims are still near their historic highs. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge
 

Still at least 18 million people were on unemployment benefits under all programs in mid-February which may be a sign of the weakness and volatility of the US jobs market. Also a suite of Federal Reserve officials have pointed to a still-vast reservoir of unemployed and discouraged workers, noting that the prospect of full employment is still way off. Sluggish labour market recovery may cause the FED to sustain its current ultra-loose monetary policy even despite fears related to rising inflation.

Still 18 million of Americans require some form of government aid. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge

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