MACRO: Worsening situation on the US housing market

13:38 19 August 2022

Existing home sales in the US declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million in July, the lowest since June of 2020 and below market expectations of 4.89 million. Current situation resembles pattern of the last housing bubble namely affordability collapses, which has negative impact on sales. In result house prices started to move south.

Existing home sales fell 20% over the last year and reached their lowest levels since June 2020. Source: Bloomberg

Sales declined for a sixth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June.  However "Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers" according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The median price of an existing home sold in the US fell 2.4% in July, the largest monthly decline since January 2020.

US existing home median sales price started to move lower. Source: compoundadvisors.cm

US Housing Affordability dropped below the lows from July 2006 which was at the peak of the last housing bubble. However, at that time, prices fell around 25.0%, reaching the bottom in December 2011, and now the downward movement is only gaining momentum

US Housing Affordability reached a level not seen since 1989. Source: compoundadvisors.cm

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