McDonald's shares near the lowest level since August 2024 📉

McDonald's shares are down nearly 11% year-to-date, even though the company continues to report solid operating performance. Revenue increased by 9.4%, while global comparable sales rose 3.8%, showing that the fast-food giant is still attracting customers despite a tougher consumer environment.

• Why the stock is under pressure: Investors are concerned about inflation, higher interest expenses, restructuring costs, and the risk that weaker consumer sentiment could eventually hurt restaurant traffic.

• AI becomes part of the growth plan: McDonald's is working with Google on AI-powered drive-thru ordering, which CEO Chris Kempczinski said has reached around 90% accuracy.

• Menu innovation is accelerating: The company is testing hand-breaded chicken items, stronger beverage offerings, improved coffee standards, colorful iced drinks, and possible non-dairy milk options.

• The customer experience needs to stand out: McDonald's is trying to make visits feel more memorable, as competitors raise the bar across chicken, beef, drinks, and value meals.

• Franchisee economics remain important: Around 95% of McDonald's restaurants worldwide are operated by independent franchisees, so any upgrade must support productivity and protect margins.

The consensus price target is around $331, while a more optimistic scenario could point toward $375 by 2028 if loyalty, chicken, AI drive-thrus, and global expansion deliver stronger growth. A deeper consumer slowdown could pressure sales, margins, and franchisee profitability, especially if inflation keeps weighing on household budgets. Also, the beef prices may move McDonald's shares (the US beef prices are 80% higher vs the 2019), which impact margins, while the company has not enough pricing power. U.S. cattle herd sits at its lowest level in roughly 75 years after years of multi-year droughts (especially in major cattle-producing states), high feed costs, and elevated interest rates have driven ranchers to liquidate herds rather than replenish them. 

McDonald's chart (D1 interval) and financial dashboard

Shares of McDonald's are now almost 10% below the EMA200 (the red line), signalling a bear market territory; the decline since the all-time high now is nearly 20%, and important support seems to be at $245, where (previous price actions from the autumn of 2023 and the summer of 2024). The important resistance zone now is $288 (EMA50 and the beginning of the downward impulse, started this month).

Source: xStation5

McDonald’s still looks like a high-quality business, but the ROIC/WACC spread has clearly narrowed versus its best years. Revenue has recovered strongly since 2020 and reached about USD 26.9bn in 2025, while net income remains solid at roughly USD 8.6bn. However, the key issue is capital efficiency: ROIC is now around 19.1%, well below the 2018 peak near 25%, while WACC stands at about 6.9%.

That still gives McDonald’s a positive EVA spread of roughly 12 percentage points, meaning the company continues to create economic value above its cost of capital. The spread is healthy, but no longer expanding, which helps explain why the stock is under pressure despite stable profitability. In short: McDonald’s remains a value-creating compounder, but slower revenue growth, modest EPS growth, and a less impressive ROIC profile make the valuation harder to defend unless growth reaccelerates.

Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.