Morning wrap (18.12.2025)

The Asia-Pacific session traded in mixed sentiment — though noticeably better than the end of yesterday’s cash session on Wall Street. Chinese indices are up between 0.10–0.40%, Japan’s JP225 is down 0.20%, and Singapore’s SG20cash gains 0.07%.

Market sentiment on Wall Street slightly improved after Micron’s earnings release. The stock surged 8% in after-hours trading. Micron’s new guidance forecasts adjusted Q2 earnings of $8.42 per share, nearly double expectations.

Micron reassured the market and confirmed that constrained memory supply and surging demand for AI data centers are sharply driving prices higher. Management warned that the market will remain undersupplied at least through 2026, and many customers are receiving far less memory than they order.

The company is negotiating multi-year contracts, increasing 2026 capex to $20 billion, and restructuring operations.

The yen is once again one of the weakest G10 currencies. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara repeated that authorities are “closely monitoring” FX and long-term yields but offered no stronger warning or hint of possible intervention.

New Zealand’s Q3 GDP beat expectations, with production-based GDP up +1.1% q/q (vs 0.9% expected) and expenditure-based GDP up +1.3% q/q. The rebound was broad, driven by investment, although household consumption remained weaker. On a yearly basis, production remains 0.5% below last year’s level, so the recovery is still incomplete.

President Trump announced a one-time “warrior dividend” of $1,776 for every active-duty U.S. service member, to be paid before the holidays. With roughly 1.4 million recipients, the transfer — worth about $2.5 billion — has limited macroeconomic impact but significant political symbolism.

Washington approved a record $10+ billion arms-sales package for Taiwan. It includes 82 HIMARS, 420 ATACMS, about $4 billion in self-propelled howitzers, and over $1 billion in drones, significantly boosting Taiwan’s long-range strike capabilities. The decision is almost certain to trigger a strong reaction from Beijing and escalate U.S.–China tensions.

The Bank of England will announce its rate decision today. The BOE is expected to cut the bank rate by 25 bp to 3.75%.

A similar announcement will come from the European Central Bank, which is expected to hold rates unchanged while signaling that the main phase of the easing cycle is nearing completion.

Coinbase announced a major platform expansion, adding zero-commission stock and ETF trading in the U.S., as well as integrating prediction markets and derivatives alongside crypto. The company also revealed plans for future tokenized stocks and 24/7 trading, as part of a broader push to digitize traditional markets on-chain.