Morning wrap (27.06.2025)

• U.S. index futures continue their winning streak on Friday, with the US100 and US500 gaining between 0.1% and 0.15%. The U.S. dollar (USDIDX) is stabilizing after yesterday’s decline but remains near the 97 mark. EUR/USD is slightly lower today.
• The main data releases the market is awaiting today are the U.S. PCE inflation report (12:30 PM GMT) and the final reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (2 PM GMT). Markets expect a slight decline in the assessment of current conditions compared to the previous print, while long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to come in slightly higher.
• Wall Street’s optimism is supporting European markets. Futures on the DAX and FRA40, along with other major continental indices, are moving higher. Today’s European calendar includes only secondary-tier data: preliminary inflation from France (6:45 AM GMT) and Spain (7 AM GMT).
• The U.S. Treasury Department has reached an agreement with G7 countries to remove the so-called “revenge tax” (Section 899) from President Trump’s proposed tax bill, in exchange for exempting U.S. companies from certain foreign digital and minimum tax measures. Markets responded positively to the news — the S&P 500 moved closer to all-time highs, while bond yields declined. The removal of this provision improves the outlook for foreign investment in the United States.

• According to data released early this morning, profits of Chinese industrial companies fell by -1.1% year-over-year in the first five months of the year, compared to a 1.4% increase in the previous reading. In May alone, profits declined by -9.1% year-over-year, marking the steepest drop in seven months. Companies typically cited lower prices of commodities and weak domestic demand as the main reasons. CHN.cash futures are down nearly 0.8% today
• Futures on oil and natural gas are posting modest gains following recent declines, with NATGAS up nearly 1%. Volatility in the crypto market remains limited, and Bitcoin has been holding steady since yesterday around the $107,500 mark.
• Donald Trump and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated yesterday that the United States is close to signing a trade agreement with Europe and trade talks are more favorable than previously expected. The final deal will be announced at the very end of the U.S. negotiations with its trade partners. Gold loses almost -1% and platinum declines -2.2% amid profit-taking.
• Trump criticized Fed chair, Jerome Powell again demand lower interest rates in the future. President of United States informed that US signed also a second one deal with China but didn't clarify what sort of deal with China was signed. According to his remarks, China will 'open the market' for US goods and will export rare earth metals without limits.
  
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Expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. continue to weigh on the dollar. Source: xStation5