NATGAS starts the new trading week with nearly 3% declines, which with their range knocked the commodity back below the 50-day exponential moving average and the 100-day exponential moving average (blue and purple curves on the chart, respectively). Significantly, during Friday's trading, the crude broke out above the aforementioned 100-day EMA, which could open the way for more upward movement.
Fundamentally, however, the market picture for the commodity remains uncertain:
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New weather forecasts point to higher temperatures over the next 6-10 days, which could elevate demand for the commodity. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
On the other hand, however, production remains high, and demand for electricity itself has returned to the median of the 5-year historical average. Source: XTB
The barrier set by the 100-day EMA (purple curve) from a technical point of view is now the most important control point that represents the overall downtrend. Source: xStation
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