Oil futures gains almost 2% today as Brent reacted with sizeable gains after EBC cut rates first time since 2019 and Denmark's central bank decision, which also decided to cut rates today (25 bp to 3,35%). Despite negatively for oil OPEC+ meeting results, OPEC Secretary, Al Ghais and Russian minister Novak cited still strong, continued demand for oil. According to J.P. Morgan analysts, oil will bounce back in the $80 - $90 per barrel by September 2024 due to summer inventory draws.
Analysts estimate an average $83 per barrel this year and $75 in 2025. Also, Barclays said that demand weekend during last weeks, but it's not a huge decline. Cutting rates in ECB and rising pressure on the Fed (due to weakening labour market) may be a signal to small cut in September and if the macro remains solid until this time, it may be even positive sign for oil. According to ING the oil sell-off may be overdone, as technical shows oversold territory. Mizuho Securities signalled that not only Brent, but also WTI oil has a history of bouncing from oversold territory rather quickly, and it can come back to $80 as speculators cover short positions.
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Today oil futures on Brent are traded above 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the upward December 2023 wave, but $80 is still strong resistance zone.
Source: xStation5
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