⚠️Three Markets to Watch Next Week (11.09.2026)

The past week was marked by a sharp increase in oil prices. The Brent contract gained more than 8 percent over five sessions and remains above $104 per barrel, a consequence of persistent supply disruptions and attacks on refining infrastructure. This was compounded by an ambiguous US CPI inflation reading, which prompted investors to shift their expectations towards the Fed's hawkish side. Wall Street reacted with a pullback throughout the week: the Nasdaq 100 is down about 1.4 percent month-to-date, and the S&P 500 nearly 1.8 percent, although Friday's session shows an attempt at a rebound.

However, the real test will come next week. Over just three days, from Wednesday to Friday, interest rate decisions will be announced sequentially by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Such a confluence of three major central banks in one week is rare and may trigger significantly heightened volatility in the foreign exchange market, the precious metals market, and the major stock indices. It is particularly worth watching three markets: the USDJPY pair, gold (GOLD), and the Nasdaq 100 index contract (US100).

USDJPY

The dollar has significantly lost ground against the yen, dropping to the vicinity of 153.3. The move was fueled by the remarks and actions of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated clearly: “I am the house now,” but the second, equally important driver is the increasing bets on policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.

On Friday, September 18, the market expects the BoJ's main rate to be raised from 1.00 to 1.25 percent, marking another step in policy normalization after years of zero and negative rates. A few hours earlier, at 1:30 AM, we will see Japan's CPI inflation. The consensus forecasts an acceleration to 2.0 percent from 1.9 percent, which would further strengthen the argument for tightening.

However, the key will be the comparison of the BoJ's statement with the Fed's Wednesday decision. The market is aggressively pricing in a whole series of Japanese rate hikes, so the bar is set high: any softer stance or lack of signal regarding further steps could quickly weaken the yen and push the pair back up. If, on the other hand, the BoJ raises rates and simultaneously announces continuation, the pressure to close carry trade positions—borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets—will return with double the force.

GOLD

Gold surpassed $4,389 per ounce on Friday, gaining more than 1.6 percent in the session, although quotes remain slightly lower for the whole week. Gold was weighed down by a stronger dollar and high bond yields.

The resolution will come with the Fed's Wednesday decision at 8:00 PM. The consensus expects rates to be maintained at 3.75 percent, so market attention will shift entirely to new economic projections and the tone of the communication. Gold does not generate interest, so it loses in a high-rate environment, but it simultaneously gains from falling real yields and rising geopolitical uncertainty, which is clearly present today due to the situation in the oil market.

Earlier that same day, at 2:30 PM, we will see US retail sales. The consensus expects a solid rebound of 0.9 percent monthly after a 0.6 percent drop. A strong reading would reinforce the hawkish narrative even before the conference. If the Fed signals a greater willingness to ease than the market expects, gold has the potential to attack its recent local peaks. In the opposite scenario, a correction to the support area of $4,250–$4,300 is realistic.

US100

The technology stock index remains in a downward trend on a monthly basis, losing about 1.4 percent, although the US100 contract managed to rebound during the last session. The Wall Street earnings season has ended, so the main impulses remain the Fed's decision and the situation in the Middle East.

Technology companies, valued assuming lower rates in the future, are exceptionally sensitive to any change in the tone of the communication. A further risk factor is rising oil prices, which boost inflation expectations and narrow the Fed's room for maneuver in the coming quarters.

On Thursday, September 17, at 2:30 PM, we will see the Philadelphia Fed index, which is a leading indicator of the condition of American industry. The consensus predicts a very clear deterioration, to 28.6 points from 47.4 points previously, and this is a reading that, if weak, could easily translate into fears of a slowdown. The same day will bring weekly jobless claims, and the week will conclude with Friday's industrial production. A mild stance from the Fed and a signal to pause tightening would open up room for a more pronounced rebound in the index; a more cautious tone may deepen the correction.

What else is on the calendar?

Beyond the big three central banks, it is worth watching several second-tier readings. On Wednesday at 8:00 AM, UK CPI inflation with a consensus of 3.1 percent versus 2.9 percent previously: an acceleration just before the Bank of England's Thursday decision, from which the market expects the rate to be maintained at 3.75 percent, would put its communication in an uncomfortable light. On Tuesday, the German ZEW is expected to show a clear improvement in expectations, to 40.0 from 34.2 points. On the same day at 9:30 AM, we will get domestic CPI inflation with a consensus of 3.4 percent, and early in the morning, Chinese industrial production with a forecast acceleration to 4.8 percent. Important for the oil market will be Wednesday's DOE inventories at 4:30 PM, especially after a week of such strong price increases.