CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

US dollar slightly higher ahead of Fed

06:57 20 March 2019

Summary:

  • US dollar trades subtly higher against its major G10 peers this morning

  • BoJ’s minutes suggest the bank should avoid a fixed view of no policy change

  • South Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to make an announcement on nuke talks

Waiting for Fed

Start investing today or test a free demo

Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app

Morning’s trading is bringing modest gains in the US dollar as it is trading higher against all its major peers in the G10 basket in less than twelve hours before the Federal Reserve’s announcement. Taking into account that markets think the Fed is already done with rate hikes when it comes to this tightening cycle, one may suspect that the greenback could benefit this evening as US yields do as well. Notice that till the end of the year the market-based probability points to 25% odds to a rate cut. Let us recall that the latest dot-chart released in December indicated two rate increases this year followed by one rate hike in 2020. We think that this curve is likely to be revised down, however, we do not think that the Fed will scrap nay rate hikes for either this or next year. If this is the case, it could buoy the US dollar to some extent pushing bond prices lower at the same time (note that we have seen a big rally in bond prices since November, hence there is room to unwind this move).

Over Asian hours trading we got the balance of payments data from New Zealand showing a 3.256 billion NZD current account deficit in the last quarter of 2018, the number beat the consensus of a 3.55 billion deficit. However, it was not the case when we compare the current account deficit with GDP - the ratio deteriorated to 3.7% from 3.6%. In turn, the jobs market offered more encouraging numbers as job openings grew 0.9% MoM in February. The detailed data showed that a rise was seen in nine out of the ten industries as well as in six out of the eight occupation groups. The data did not help the kiwi at all. The NZ dollar is trading 0.25% lower this morning and is the worst performing major currency.

The NZDUSD is trying to bounce off the demand zone placed at around 0.6825. The major resistance in the short-term could be localized nearby 0.6870. Source: xStation5

BoJ publishes the minutes

The Bank of Japan released the minutes of January 22-23 meeting in which we got an interesting notion from one member. Namely the member said that it was undesirable to take a stance of not taking action until a serious crisis occurred (we did not get information who expressed such words). On top of that, one member said that it was necessary to emphasize a stance of taking “swift, flexible and decisive” policy actions, including additional monetary easing if needed. Other member added that it was necessary to oppose the view that there was a limit to monetary easing. As one may noticed there is no common stance shared by a majority of members with regard to the future course of monetary policy. The yen is trading 0.15% lower this morning and was little changed shortly after the minutes were released.

The USDJPY is bouncing off the short-term term support and the pair could visit the area nearby 112. Source: xStation5

In the other news:

  • South Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expected to make an announcement on nuke talks

  • Oil inventories fell 2.1 million barrels last week, according to API’s calculations

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

Back
Xtb logo

Join over 935 000 investors from around the world

We use cookies

By clicking “Accept All”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.

This group contains cookies that are necessary for our websites to work. They take part in functionalities like language preferences, traffic distribution or keeping user session. They cannot be disabled.

Cookie name
Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol cc 2 March 2024
adobe_unique_id cc 1 March 2025
test_cookie cc 1 March 2024
SESSID cc 9 September 2022
__hssc cc 1 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 1 March 2024
intercom-id-iojaybix cc 26 November 2024
intercom-session-iojaybix cc 8 March 2024

We use tools that let us analyze the usage of our page. Such data lets us improve the user experience of our web service.

Cookie name
Description
_gid cc 9 September 2022
_gat_UA-22576382-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gat_UA-121192761-1 cc 8 September 2022
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 1 March 2026
_ga cc 1 March 2026
AnalyticsSyncHistory cc 8 October 2022
af_id cc 31 March 2025
afUserId cc 1 March 2026
af_id cc 1 March 2026
AF_SYNC cc 8 March 2024
__hstc cc 28 August 2024
__hssrc

This group of cookies is used to show you ads of topics that you are interested in. It also lets us monitor our marketing activities, it helps to measure the performance of our ads.

Cookie name
Description
MUID cc 26 March 2025
_omappvp cc 11 February 2035
_omappvs cc 1 March 2024
_uetsid cc 2 March 2024
_uetvid cc 26 March 2025
_fbp cc 30 May 2024
fr cc 7 December 2022
muc_ads cc 7 September 2024
lang
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 26 March 2025
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
hubspotutk cc 28 August 2024

Cookies from this group store your preferences you gave while using the site, so that they will already be here when you visit the page after some time.

Cookie name
Description
personalization_id cc 7 September 2024
UserMatchHistory cc 8 October 2022
bcookie cc 8 September 2023
lidc cc 9 September 2022
lang
bscookie cc 8 September 2023
li_gc cc 7 March 2023

This page uses cookies. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by most websites to help personalise your web experience. For more information see our Privacy Policy You can manage cookies by clicking "Settings". If you agree to our use of cookies, click "Accept all".

Change region and language
Country of residence
Language