US OPEN: Indices trading flat day before NFP. Amazon gains prior to Q4 earnings

Sentiment on Wall Street is mixed on Thursday, with major indices trading almost flat. Nasdaq is up 0.01%, the S&P 500 is 0.05% higher, the Russell 2000 has dipped 0.04%, and the DJIA shows the most significant loss at 0.25%.

Investors are clearly cautious ahead of tomorrow's job market report (NFP), especially after recent gains in non-farm payrolls, as indicated by the ADP report. However, the JOLTS data and today’s claims report suggest the labor market may cool, with declining vacancies and a notable uptick in the 4-week average of jobless claims for the first time in two months.

On the corporate front, Amazon's earnings report takes center stage today, with consensus estimates of $1.48 EPS and $187.23B in revenue (+10.1% YoY). Analysts are optimistic, anticipating strong results driven by a solid holiday season and efficiency gains. AWS is expected to show 19-20% growth, boosted by AI. Over the past three months, Amazon has seen upward revisions in both EPS and revenue estimates, with stock up 38% in the last year.

Volatility currently observed on Wall Street. Source: xStation5

US100 (D1)

The Nasdaq 100 contract has opened yet again on a bullish note, getting progressively close to the ceiling of the current consolidation zone. RSI is again approaching the overbought area, signaling a potential slowdown in this week' s virtuous gains. The modest gains are mostly due to low volatility on most of the Magnificent 7 and the weakness of several semiconductor stocks (AVGO.US: -0,7%, AMD.US: -0,9%, QCOM.US: -3.4%).

Source: xStation5

Corporate news:

• Amazon (AMZN.US): Shares rise 0.75% ahead of Q4 earnings report, with expectations for strong financial results. Regulatory crackdowns on competitors like Shein and Temu could reduce competition in the U.S., benefiting Amazon amid new import levies on those rivals.
   
• Ford (F.US): Shares drop 4.6% after warning of profit decline in 2025, citing lower vehicle prices and costs from new model launches. Analysts express concerns over recovery potential in the second half of the year. Q1 2025 adjusted EBIT expected to be breakeven.
   
• Honeywell (HON.US): Plans to separate aerospace and automation divisions by 2026 after pressure from activist investor Elliott. The breakup aims to enhance shareholder value. Honeywell reported earnings of $2.47 per share, surpassing estimates, but stock is down 5.3%.
   
• Qualcomm (QCOM.US): Shares fall 3.4% due to concerns over cooling smartphone demand despite positive Q1 results. Analysts worry about flat-to-low-single-digit growth in handset units and the impact of seasonality from Apple, affecting Qualcomm’s guidance for the March quarter.
   
• Skyworks (SWKS.US): Shares plummet 22% as a significant portion of revenue is tied to Apple. Investors are concerned about potential headwinds from reduced demand in Apple's ecosystem, impacting Skyworks’ outlook in the near term.
   
• Ralph Lauren (RL.US): Shares rise 15% after raising full-year revenue forecast to a 6%-7% increase in constant currency, up from 3%-4%. This positive outlook follows strong regional sales growth and an 11% revenue increase in Q3, surpassing expectations.
   
• Tesla (TSLA.US): Sales in Germany drop 59% in January, marking the lowest monthly total since 2021. Factors contributing to the decline include Elon Musk’s political actions, production shifts, inventory shortages, and a growing EV market. Tesla stock is down 2.8%.