Futures on the VIX volatility index are rising by just under 3% today; however, compared to yesterday’s highs above 40, the VIX has fallen by nearly 10%. The U.S. benchmark index, US500, "ignored" the news of retaliatory 125% tariffs from China, although demand for hedging remains elevated, with the VIX still trading well above 35 ahead of the U.S. market open.
VIX (H1 Interval)
On the hourly chart, we can see that the VIX has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, which, combined with a divergence on the MACD and RSI indicators, may signal downward pressure. However, it’s important to note that the VIX is known for its unpredictability, and any negative news for the stock market could easily trigger a retest or breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 38, or even levels above 40.
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Source: xStation5
VIX (M15 Interval)
Looking at previous top formations on the VIX, we can see some similarities, particularly in the form of unexpected downside breakouts from technical patterns resembling rectangular triangles. The key levels to watch now are around 36.5–37; a breakout above this zone could open the door for a retest of yesterday’s highs. Conversely, a drop below 33.8 could confirm continued downward pressure.
Source: xStation5
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