S&P 500 (US500) futures are attempting a modest rebound after sharp declines. Weak NFP data combined with rising oil prices have increased concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, while the Federal Reserve appears to have limited room for rate cuts. Donald Trump attempted to “calm” markets today, saying he expects the impact of the war in Iran to be “similar to Venezuela.” Futures on the Dow Jones (US30) are down more than 1.1%, while US100 is retreating by over 0.5%. The financial sector is seeing notable declines, with BlackRock shares falling after the suspension of withdrawals from a private credit fund managing nearly $30 billion.

US500 (H1 interval)

The S&P 500 futures contract remains within a downward price channel and is currently trading much closer to its lower boundary. The key support level today is around 6,700 points, while a significant resistance zone lies near 6,845 points.

Source: xStation5

US equities volatility

• Mega-cap technology stocks are under pressure today, although the scale of the moves looks more like a cooling in sentiment than a panic sell-off. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.7%, Apple (AAPL) 0.8%, Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) 1.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) 1.2%, Amazon (AMZN) 1.3%, and Nvidia (NVDA) 1.4%.
• Dow Inc. (DOW) stands out on the upside, rising 4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock from “neutral” to “overweight.” The market interprets this as a bet on improving pricing conditions in the chemicals sector, driven by tensions around Iran and tightening supply.
• Intuit (INTU) is declining despite Northcoast Research upgrading the stock from “neutral” to “buy.” This often signals that while the upgrade is positive, it is not strong enough to immediately trigger a larger market reaction.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) is one of the strongest performers of the session, with shares gaining more than 10% following a very bullish update on revenue growth. The company said its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate in every quarter of fiscal 2027, which the market reads as confirmation of strong demand related to data centers.
• Okta (OKTA) is up 1.6% after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the stock from “market perform” to “outperform.” The move is not dramatic, but the market is clearly rewarding the improved analyst sentiment toward the software company.
• Samsara (IOT) is gaining 10% after reporting an acceleration in new recurring revenue growth. This helps ease investor concerns that rapid AI development could disrupt the company’s business model faster than previously expected.
• Trade Desk (TTD) is down 3% after Wedbush downgraded the stock from “neutral” to “underperform.” The key argument is that the market may have overestimated the potential impact of the company’s partnership with OpenAI.
• At the sector level, the market is showing a classic reaction to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Energy stocks are moving higher — Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) are both up about 1.4% — while airline stocks are under pressure: Delta (DAL) is down 2%, United (UAL) 2.7%, and American Airlines (AAL) 2.5%.

Source: xStation5

Company news

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Costco has slightly raised its profit forecast for the holiday quarter, assuming that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling could accelerate refunds of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Markets interpret this as a potential one-off boost to margins and net income.

• The company stressed that these tariff refunds had not previously been included in EPS assumptions, meaning any benefit would represent an additional upside rather than the realization of earlier projections.
• Operationally, Costco still sees cost pressures but believes that lower prices resulting from tariff refunds could improve sales volumes. The EPS estimate for the second fiscal quarter was raised from $4.67 to $5.04.

Ford Motor (F)

Ford is recalling 1.74 million vehicles in the United States as part of an ongoing review of a repair campaign related to defective fuel injectors in certain models. The scale of the recall gives the issue both operational and reputational weight.

• The problem affects models including the Bronco and Edge, with regulators warning that the faulty injectors may crack and lead to fuel leaks. This elevates the issue beyond service costs to a potential safety concern.
• There is also a risk of engine compartment overheating and fire, which typically increases regulatory scrutiny and potential costs for the manufacturer. Markets rarely ignore this type of development even before the full financial impact is known.

Gap (GAP)

Gap has warned that tariffs and weaker growth forecasts are becoming a growing burden for its business, openly acknowledging increasing pressure on results. This suggests that the macroeconomic environment is starting to weigh more heavily even on large retailers.

• The company lowered its adjusted EPS forecast for the second quarter to $0.20–$0.25, compared with market expectations of around $0.32.
• Gap also expects full-year sales to decline by about 2.5% to $24 billion, clearly below earlier projections. The company additionally indicated around $550 million in lost sales versus prior plans and weaker profitability in the second quarter.

Medtronic (MDT)

Medtronic is selling 30.5 million shares of its MiniMed unit at $51 per share, increasing the offering from the originally planned 25 million shares. The expanded size suggests demand for the deal proved strong.

• The total value of the offering reaches approximately $1.55 billion, based on the number of shares listed in the IPO prospectus.
• The company also sold a portion of its holdings in the subsidiary’s common stock, which markets may interpret as part of a broader effort to monetize the asset and streamline its ownership structure.

Nike (NKE)

Nike is recalling more than 5,300 shoe chargers due to overheating and fire risks, affecting the Adapt BB model. Even a relatively small recall can carry reputational implications for a global brand.

• The recall involves reviewing and refreshing the product before sales resume, indicating that Nike is attempting to resolve the issue rather than discontinue the category.
• The company also warned of potential fiscal penalties in China of up to $20 million, mainly related to compliance issues involving stores and online sales. Nike indicated that additional penalties could follow, adding to regulatory uncertainty.

Marvell Technology gaining momentum

Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue forecast to $15.2 billion, up from about $14.2 billion previously. This represents a meaningful upward revision and signals strong management confidence in future demand.

• The company highlighted strong demand for custom AI chips and connectivity solutions, which aligns with the broader surge in spending on data center infrastructure.
• Marvell also increased its targets for gross margin and earnings per share by 2028, while raising its expected average annual revenue growth rate for fiscal 2027 to over 30% year-over-year. In practical terms, the message is clear: growth is not only continuing but is expected to accelerate and become more profitable.
• Marvell shares are trading close to $90, standing out in the semiconductor sector where declines dominate today. The upgraded outlook triggered an almost immediate increase in market optimism toward the stock. Despite the rally, the shares remain roughly 30% below their historical highs.

Source: xStation5