Wheat almost 1% ahead of the US WADE report 🔎Russia puts pressure on prices

Futures on Chicago wheat (WHEAT) at the CBOT are down nearly 1% today ahead of the release of updated supply, demand, and ending stocks projections in the USDA WASDE report, scheduled for 6:00 p.m. CET. Wheat prices continue to face pressure from cheaper Russian exports, where the reduction of the export tax to zero has translated into even lower FOB values. The move was likely intended to allow Russian exporters to push prices down further and secure contracts across markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Notably, Argentina’s Javier Milei has also decided to reduce export taxes on wheat, introducing yet another highly competitive player to the global agricultural market.

Expected WASDE figures

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Key Facts

• Wheat from the Black Sea region remains the primary benchmark for global pricing. Russian 12.5% protein wheat continues to outcompete Ukrainian 11.5%, with both origins trading within a narrow range, though Russia maintains a clear pricing advantage.

• Declines in Chicago SRW and Kansas HRW (March) futures reflect a market lacking a clear catalyst and still weighed down by global supply pressure, primarily from Russia.

• French milling wheat weakened again, highlighting soft EU demand and ongoing export challenges due to aggressive Black Sea pricing.

• Demand in Southeast Asia is beginning to recover, with private buyers in the Philippines reportedly purchasing several cargoes of feed wheat. The Pacific Basin continues to absorb supply despite volatility in freight markets.

• In Australia, APW and ASW prices strengthened as the Australian dollar gained value.

• Russian export offers for January–February shipment remain exceptionally competitive at 229–233 USD/t FOB, and the export tax cut to zero further solidifies Russia’s role as the global “market maker.”

• In the EU’s Black Sea region (e.g., Constanța), prices remain stable, but liquidity is extremely thin.

• Protein premiums across Europe (France, Germany, Poland, Baltic states) remain virtually unchanged, reflecting a calm physical market with no upward pressure on higher-quality wheat. Export premiums in the U.S. Gulf remain stable as well, both for Chicago and Kansas classes.

WHEAT (D1 interval)

The chart shows weakening sentiment in the wheat market, with prices struggling to hold within a narrow 530–450 range since November 21. A breakdown below 530 could open the door to a deeper decline, while a move above 545 would increase the likelihood of a test of local highs around 560.

Source: xStation5