Chart of the day: EURUSD (03.10.2025)

Eurozone

Final services PMI softened to 51.3 (prelim 51.4; prior 50.5), while the composite PMI held at 51.2 (prelim 51.2; prior 51.0), confirming that the services sector is keeping growth positive despite manufacturing weakness. New orders improved and price pressures eased slightly—still above long-term averages—supporting HCOB’s ~0.4% q/q GDP nowcast for Q3 and broadly justifying the ECB’s steady stance for now.

Spain

Services PMI rose to 54.3 (vs 53.0 expected; prior 53.2) and the composite to 53.8 (prior 53.7), driven by strong growth in new business and firm domestic demand. Export demand looks weaker—mainly tourism-related—while input costs remain elevated and firms raised selling prices. Forward-looking sentiment and hiring plans stayed upbeat as backlogs of work increased.

Italy

Services PMI climbed to 52.5 (vs 51.5 expected; prior 51.5) and the composite held at 51.7, signaling steady, services-led growth while manufacturing remains soft. New business accelerated and employment growth slowed; cost pressures (wages, energy, rents) stay high even as output price inflation fell to a 10-month low. Confidence ticked up slightly but remains below average, with resilience in services crucial for sustaining the recovery.

Germany

Final services PMI printed at 51.5 (below 52.5 prelim; prior 49.3) and composite at 52.0 (vs 52.4 prelim; prior 50.5), showing private-sector growth at the fastest pace in 16 months. However, new business in services fell for the second straight month and manufacturing orders also reversed, raising doubts about momentum durability. Cost inflation in services picked up again, and firms began to slightly reduce employment amid weakening demand.

France

Services PMI fell to 48.5 (vs 48.9 prelim; prior 49.8) and composite to 48.1 (vs 48.4 prelim; prior 49.8), confirming an economic slowdown at the end of Q3. Political uncertainty appears to weigh on demand; both domestic and export new orders declined. Input costs kept rising while output prices edged lower, signaling margin pressure, though employment has so far held steady.

EURUSD

The pair is trading firmer today, supported by both sides of the equation: a modest dollar pullback and slight euro strengthening. EURUSD is up 0.16% at 1.17360.