Economic calendar: Day with PMIs

Summary:
- German manufacturing PMI expected to show slight improvement
- US manufacturing PMI to stay unchanged in June
- Fed speakers may offer some details on latest monetary policy shifts

The economic calendar on the final trading day of the week is dominated by releases of PMI indices from Europe and the United States. French data will be released at 8:15 am BST and is expected to show a slight improvement in both manufacturing and services sectors. However, the most important reading from the Old Continent will be released 15 minutes later at 8:30 am BST - the German PMI indices for June. Manufacturing sector of Europe's biggest economy is struggling and its PMI index is deep below the contraction threshold. The German manufacturing PMI is expected to tick higher from 44.3 pts to 44.6 pts and the services gauge should slide from 55.4 pts to 55.2 pts. Data for the euro area as a whole will be released at 9:00 am BST. However, as all the partial data from member countries will be released by then, the reading itself should not trigger any bigger price moves. Moving to the US trading hours, investors will be offered a few important readings. The Canadian retail sales print will be released at 1:30 pm BST and is expected to show significant deceleration in sales growth. The US PMI indices will be released at 2:45 pm BST and are expected to show manufacturing gauge remaining unchanged in June at 50.5 pts and services gauge ticking higher to 51 pts. Existing home sales for May round up the calendar for this week. The print is expected to show a 2.1% MoM increase, or 5.25 million homes. Last but not least, a number of central bankers will deliver speeches throughout the day.

Central bankers’ speeches:
- 1:30 pm BST - BoE Tenreyro
- 5:00 pm BST - Fed’s Brainard and Mester
- 5:00 pm BST - ECB’s Nowotny
- 8:00 pm BST - Fed’s Daly

EURUSD pushed significantly higher after the latest dovish shift from Fed. The pair, however, keeps struggling with the 200-session moving average (purple line on the chart above). It was tested 5 times during the past 7 months and 5 times bulls failed to smash it. Given that the pair is trading close to this moving average and the resistance at 1.13, one cannot rule out a bigger pullback, especially if it is triggered by another disappointment in the German survey data. Source: xStation5