Economic calendar: German Ifo report and durable goods orders in the US (25.07.2025)

After a macro-heavy Thursday, Friday’s economic calendar looks relatively calm, especially following the release of key data from Japan (Tokyo CPI) and the UK (retail sales).

With one week remaining in trade negotiations, the market will primarily monitor incoming comments on upcoming trade agreements—recent mentions by the U.S. administration have included Australia, South Korea, and the EU. The ongoing corporate earnings season will also be competing for market attention.

Among key data releases today, we have the Ifo report from Germany, which may offer more insight into business sentiment just ahead of potential tariffs. Additionally, U.S. durable goods orders will be published—particularly relevant in light of yesterday’s unexpectedly weak PMI report for U.S. manufacturing.

Economic Calendar for Today (BST):

• 00:30 – Japan – July Inflation Data:

  • CPI: current 1.7% y/y; previous 1.8% y/y

  • Tokyo CPI: current 2.9% y/y; previous 3.1% y/y

  • Tokyo CPI excl. food and energy: current 0.1% m/m; previous -0.4% m/m

  • Core Tokyo CPI: current 2.9% y/y; forecast 3.0% y/y; previous 3.1% y/y

• 07:00 – United Kingdom – June Retail Sales:

  • Retail sales: current 1.7% y/y; forecast 1.8% y/y; previous -1.1% y/y

  • Core retail sales: current 1.8% y/y; forecast 2.0% y/y; previous -1.2% y/y

  • Retail sales: current 0.9% m/m; forecast 1.2% m/m; previous -2.8% m/m

  • Core retail sales: current 0.6% m/m; forecast 1.2% m/m; previous -2.9% m/m

• 09:00 – Germany – July Ifo Report:

  • Business climate index: forecast 89.0; previous 88.4

  • Current conditions: forecast 86.7; previous 86.2

  • Business expectations: forecast 91.1; previous 90.7

• 13:30 – United States – June Durable Goods Orders:

  • Durable goods orders: forecast -10.4% m/m; previous 16.4% m/m

  • Core orders: forecast 0.1% m/m; previous 0.5% m/m

  • Capital goods orders ex-defense: forecast 0.2% m/m; previous 1.7% m/m

  • Durable goods ex-defense: previous 15.5% m/m

• 16:30 – United States – GDP Data:

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): forecast 2.4%; previous 2.4%

• 18:00 – United States – Baker Hughes Rig Count:

  • Forecast: 421; previous: 422