Fed's Powell expects a 'meaningful' inflation spike. Lower odds for summer rate cuts?

According to Fed chair, Jerome Powell, 'the reason we are not cutting rates is that forecasts in and out of the Fed expect a meaningful increase in inflation this year.' On the other hand, Powell says that '(...) We could see inflation come in not as strong as expected, if that's the case, we would suggest cutting sooner. (...) Also, a weakening labour market would suggest cutting sooner. Powell signals also that the labour market is clearly weaker, which may encourage the Fed to cut rates later this year. However, uncertainty around the tariff's impact persists, and the Federal Reserve may want to enter 'wait & see' mode during this summer. USDIDX loses almost 0.6% today as investors weigh in lower oil prices and a chance for a real ceasefire in the Middle East. As we can see on the weekly chart, USDIDX continue the biggest sell-off since the autumn of 2022.

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