Morning wrap (15.05.2025)

The recent rally on Wall Street stalled yesterday as the initial momentum from the China-U.S. negotiations faded and concerns about sticky inflation resurfaced (S&P500: +0.1%, Nasdaq: +0.7%, DJIA: -0.2%, Russell 2000: -0.88%).

However, the U.S. AI initiative in Saudi Arabia continued to fuel euphoria in tech stocks (NVDA.US: +4.7%, AMD.US: +4.7%), while Boeing shares were supported by a large order from Qatar Airways (BA.US: +0.7%).

According to Fed’s Philip Jefferson, tariffs may still slow growth and add to current inflation levels, highlighting persistent uncertainty and the well-positioned nature of current U.S. interest rates.

The fading of the negotiation narrative triggered the first correction in five sessions across Asia-Pacific markets. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell (-0.9%), South Korea's Kospi dropped (-0.8%), and China's HSCEI declined (-0.75%).

The exception was Australia's S&P/ASX 200, which rose 0.2% after strong April labor market data. Employment grew by 89,000 (forecast: 22.5k, previous: 36.4k), while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. The participation rate also rose (from 66.8% to 67.1%).

On the forex market: the dollar is retreating against most G10 currencies (USDIDX: -0.13%). Safe haven currencies are rebounding, particularly the yen (USDJPY: -0.5%) and the Swiss franc (USDCHF: -0.25%). Meanwhile, antipodean currencies are depreciating (AUDUSD: -0.05%, NZDUSD: -0.12%). EURUSD is up 0.15% to 1.119.

Gold continues to fall (-1.4% to $3,132 per ounce), as does silver (-1.3% to $31.80 per ounce).

Brent and WTI crude oil are down about 2.55% following reports that Iran is willing to abandon its nuclear program development in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions.

In the cryptocurrency market, broad pessimism persists (Bitcoin: -1.16%, Ethereum: -1.17%, Trump: -3.7%, Polygon: -3%, Chainlink: -2.5%, Solana: -2%).