NATGAS slides 3%📉

Henry Hub US natural gas futures (NATGAS) are down more than 3% today, pressured by high production levels and cooler weather forecasts in the United States.

The shoulder season suggests that the gap between ample supply and weaker demand may “seasonally” widen, pushing prices back toward the lows seen in the second half of August.
On the other hand, if US weather were to shift sharply colder or warmer in the coming weeks, a rebound above $3 per MMBtu still looks realistic, particularly as production is also likely to decline.

As shown on the map below, temperature forecasts for the most populated and heat-sensitive regions of the US (West and East Coasts) are below average, reinforcing the current bearish momentum in gas prices.

Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Centre

NATGAS has broken lower from its rising price channel, and if another downward impulse is triggered around the $2.90 level, the next meaningful support sits near $2.70 per MMBtu, marked by previous price reactions. A move back above $3 would suggest an attempt to reestablish the uptrend.

Source: xStation5

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