OIL surges 4% on OPEC+ decision and geopolitical risks 📈

Crude oil (OIL) is gaining nearly 4% today, as the increase in supply from OPEC+ turned out to be lower than the market had feared, despite heightened geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine and Iran.

• On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, contradicting late-week reports that suggested a significant production boost was expected—news that had put downward pressure on oil prices on Friday, May 30. The decision aligns with the existing production plans for May and June and also matches Bloomberg analysts’ expectations.
• Meanwhile, a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike on Russian territory reportedly damaged around 40 aircraft, including strategic bombers stationed at even the most remote airfields. Markets are now concerned that Moscow may view this as a reason to escalate hostilities and retaliate more forcefully against Kyiv—something that has already been observed. This development may further delay any potential ceasefire negotiations. Today, Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul.
• Additionally, the IAEA has warned that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is nearing the threshold needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Washington still hasn’t reached a breakthrough in negotiations with Tehran, which continues to resist terms related to the so-called nuclear deal.

According to market reports, Algeria, Oman, and Russia oppose the OPEC+ production cuts initiated by Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for July 6.

OIL (Daily interval)

Source: xStation5