The week brought intense activity for investors, driven by both macroeconomic reports and geopolitical developments. The upcoming week is expected to remain geopolitically charged, although there will be fewer macroeconomic data releases. Key reports to watch include the final U.S. Q1 GDP figures, the PCE report, and preliminary June PMI data. Additionally, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak, along with testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Given these developments, the following instruments are worth monitoring: OIL.WTI, EURUSD, and US500.
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The large-cap index US500 is consolidating near all-time highs around 6000 points. Upcoming data releases will likely drive volatility in this index. Particularly important will be the final GDP figures, PCE data, and any further escalation in the Middle East conflict.
EURUSD
Despite an attempted rebound, the U.S. dollar remains weak. Gains seen after the Fed's relatively hawkish stance have been fully erased, with the market now focusing more on trade war tensions and incoming macro data. Additional moves could be triggered by speeches from FOMC members and Powell's testimony on June 24-25 before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.
OIL.WTI
Oil contracts will likely be the most closely watched instruments. The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and markets are increasingly worried about potential U.S. involvement. Iran has warned that such a scenario could significantly increase the risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation or attacks on oil infrastructure could quickly push prices higher. Some major U.S. banks estimate that oil could reach $90 per barrel, and in the case of disrupted shipping routes, prices might surge to $150-200 per barrel. The conflict will remain a key market driver, likely resulting in heightened volatility in oil futures, especially OIL.WTI.
