The upcoming minutes from the Fed meeting (October 28–29) will likely show growing caution among FOMC members regarding additional rate cuts. Although the Fed cut rates by 25 bps in October, the record may reveal that several participants saw merit in keeping rates unchanged — compared with “a few” in September. During the vote, only Miran supported a 50 bp cut, and Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.
Powell had already mentioned a “growing number” of supporters for a pause, and recent remarks from policymakers have only reinforced this view. Despite that, some members still support a cut at the next meeting on December 9–10, and Bloomberg Economics expects such a decision. Policymakers are now focusing more on labor-market risks than on any meaningful shift in inflation trends. In this context, the delayed NFP data — expected this Thursday and Friday (September numbers) — will be crucial.
Balance-sheet policy will be one of the key topics. On December 1, the Fed will halt Quantitative Tightening. Therefore, markets will be looking for clues on the exact date for beginning reserve-management purchases. Most likely, this will involve Treasury bill buying in the first quarter of 2026.
The market is positioning cautiously ahead of the minutes. However, today’s price action is likely being driven more by the above-mentioned Nvidia earnings release and the delayed labor-market report. At the time of writing, gold is up 1.21% at 4,116 USD per ounce.
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