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In the US, we celebrate Independence Day on July 4th. As a result, the market closed early today, with significantly reduced volume. Tomorrow, which is July 4th, the cash market is closed, but some futures contracts are still active.
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Today, we received the ISM Manufacturing Index, which unexpectedly dropped to 46 from the previous level of 46.9, while there was an expectation of a rebound to 47.2. This index clearly indicates the possibility of a recession. We are also witnessing further declines in price assessments and the job market. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released on Friday.
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PMI indices from Europe have shown mixed results. Spain and France performed better, but Germany recorded a level of 40.6 for the manufacturing sector, which outweighed the decline for the entire Eurozone industrial sector.
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China's PMI came in at 50.5, down from the previous level of 50.9, in line with expectations. In Japan, there was a expected decline to 49.8 from 50.6.
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Oil initially reacted positively to the news that Saudi Arabia would extend additional production cuts of 1 million barrels per day in August. Additionally, Russia indicated its intention to reduce exports by 500,000 barrels per day from August to help limit supply. However, initial gains turned into declines as the market remained skeptical of the actions taken by the major players in OPEC+.
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Soybeans saw significant gains following a report on the final planting decisions in the US. American farmers chose to allocate more acreage to soybeans instead of corn and wheat, which are typically sown later.
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Strong growth was observed in Asia today, with the Nikkei 225 index up 1.7% in the cash market and limited to 0.5% on futures contracts. Hang Seng CE rose over 2.5%.
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Yield rates continue to rise, and the 2-year to 10-year spread has dropped to -110, indicating a sharp inversion of the yield curve. On Wednesday, we will have the FOMC minutes, which may provide insights into whether we can expect another interest rate hike from the Fed this year.
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Bitcoin is experiencing gains today, although it is currently below $31,000, with an increase of just over 1%.
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Today, there was significant excitement among electric vehicle manufacturers due to positive data regarding car deliveries. Tesla saw gains of up to 6%, and other companies like NIO and XPeng also experienced increases.
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USDTRY is declining today, falling below 26, following the central bank's announcement that it has just begun the process of tightening monetary policy and is taking other measures, including currency interventions.
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At the end of the session, the strongest performance was seen in US2000, gaining 0.43%, followed by US100 with a gain of 0.17%, and S&P 500 adding 0.12%.
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