- NATGAS gains amid colder weather forecasts; consumption expectations grow
- Technicals are improving but volatility risk remains
- Oil faces resistance zone near $66 per barell
- NATGAS gains amid colder weather forecasts; consumption expectations grow
- Technicals are improving but volatility risk remains
- Oil faces resistance zone near $66 per barell
The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas market (NATGAS) continued its upward momentum early Monday as investors began pricing in forecasts of colder weather across the United States and Europe. With heating demand expected to rise, market sentiment has gradually shifted toward a pre-winter buying stance. Today, buying momentum is driving prices toward the $3.50 per MMBtu level. The market recently rolled over into the November contract, which traditionally brings higher seasonal pricing as consumption expectations grow.
- Since February of last year, natural gas has maintained a broader upward trend, despite occasional corrections. The most recent pullback, in August, bottomed near $2.65, which can now be viewed as a healthy consolidation phase within a longer-term recovery. As temperatures decline, seasonal fundamentals continue to support further price gains. Any short-term dip toward the $3.00 zone could once again attract institutional buying interest. The 200-day EMA near $3.30 currently serves as a key support level, while the 50-day EMA around $3.20 is turning upward, improving the technical outlook for continued price recovery.
- There remains an unfilled price gap below current levels, which could temporarily pull prices slightly lower before the next upward move. While such gaps often close, this isn’t guaranteed — particularly when strong fundamentals dominate investor sentiment. Looking ahead, many traders see the $4.00 mark as the next major psychological and technical target. Historically, this area has acted as both resistance and a profit-taking zone, making it a key reference point for long-term investors.
From current levels, any notable pullback may serve as a new opportunity to test buying strength, as traders continue to anticipate tighter supply conditions and rising heating demand in the coming winter months.
Source: xStation5
Weather maps from NOAA indicate a significant cooling trend across the western United States, while temperatures in Florida are expected to ease from recent highs.
Source: NOAA
Today, not only natural gas contracts are rising, but oil prices also gained earlier in the session. However, they ultimately failed to break above the $66 per barrel level, even as OPEC+ maintained its cautious supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. OPEC has signaled its readiness to pause or reverse production cuts in an effort to balance weakening demand with ongoing supply pressures. Brent futures prices are facing resistance zone near $65.5 per barell.
Source: xStation5
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