Rigetti Computing – The New Leader in the Quantum Market?

California-based Rigetti Computing is an innovator in the field of quantum computing — an entirely new way of processing information. This is a controversial technology: for many, it represents a massive yet still only potential leap in technological development, while others are convinced it is a dead end for computer technology. Perceptions of the company will largely depend on a potential investor’s view of quantum technology and tech stocks in general. Every investor wants to find the next Palantir or Nvidia, but few are willing to accept the risks associated with investing in such a company.

What does Rigetti offer?

One of the company’s flagship products is the “Pioneer” system — an integrated, end-to-end quantum technology platform. According to the company, they design and control every stage and element, from quantum chip design to providing access to their quantum cloud technology. This quantum cloud is another major achievement and point of pride for the company.

It allows organizations to integrate with quantum computing systems and leverage their unique capabilities without needing to own the entire hardware infrastructure and personnel required to operate such systems. Among its notable partners are NASA and Microsoft. The partnership with Microsoft enables remote access to Rigetti’s modular quantum computer — Cepheus-1-36Q — through the Azure Quantum service.

RGTI.US (D1)

The company’s stock recently surged nearly 30% after announcing another major milestone. Notably, shares have risen over 1,800% since the beginning of this year. However, this still represents “only” a 63% gain from its IPO in 2021. For anyone interested in the company, the upcoming earnings report in November is a must-read.

Source: Xstation

From a financial perspective, Rigetti is neither better nor worse than its peers in the quantum computing sector or tech start-up standards. However, yesterday’s results fell short of expectations. The company posted over $19 million in operating losses, and more concerningly, sales dropped by 40%. Revenue also disappointed — coming in at $1.8 million versus the $1.87 million expected. The stock initially reacted with high volatility but has since stabilized around $16 per share.

Investor optimism could be supported by Bloomberg’s sales forecast, which predicts record sales in Q4 2025. Analyst sentiment on Bloomberg Finance is also positive. While the company remains small and is not widely covered by analysts, all current recommendations are positive. Price targets range from $18 to $20 per share, implying potential upside of several dozen percent.

Opportunities, Risks & the Future

The company — and the entire sector — faces significant challenges. The greatest is the quantum technology itself: esoteric, mysterious, and far from intuitive.

• Its applications in daily life and business remain uncertain. Rigetti claims that by 2040, quantum technology could generate up to $850 billion in value, while the quantum components and software market could be worth $90–170 billion (based on today’s valuations). For scale, the entire video game market today is worth around $250 billion.
• Another risk is competition. Rigetti is not the only U.S. company working on quantum computing. However, this risk is partly offset by the fact that quantum technology often needs to be highly specialized and tailored to niche applications, which limits direct competition within the sector.

The Unspoken Risk

A rarely discussed potential risk in quantum sector analyses is the technology’s threat to the entire field of cryptography. Governments may decide to regulate access to components and tools to prevent their use against national interests. A precedent for this is the U.S. government’s restriction on the export of advanced Nvidia AI chips. Naturally, such restrictions could significantly impact potential sales.