Global markets currently appear almost entirely focused on the escalation of the conflict between the US and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other into a full-scale war. All countries in the Strait of Hormuz area are now under regular fire, the strait itself is blocked, airports and ports are almost completely out of operation, and many refineries have been damaged and/or are operating in crisis mode.
At the session open, WTI crude is up more than 6%, US LPG futures are up more than 3%, and gold is gaining 1%. The dollar is strengthening by around 0.5%. Among Wall Street indices, opening losses are around 1.2%; however, as the session progresses, the market trims losses and moves slightly into positive territory.
The biggest risk for the market right now is significant pressure on oil and gas supply. This will push energy commodity prices higher, followed by a rise in inflation, which would deprive central banks of room to cut rates. Such a development could invalidate many of investors’ assumptions regarding the growth path over the coming quarters.
Macroeconomic data:
In the US, the February manufacturing PMI and ISM readings were released.
- The PMI came in at 51.6 versus expectations of 51.2 (up from 51.2).
- The ISM came in at 52.4 versus expectations of 51.7.
The industry readings were a positive surprise and point to a pro-inflationary trend—especially when looking at the ISM Prices component, which stands as high as 70 points.
- Later in the day, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate will also be released; the expected reading is 3%.
US100 (D1)
Source: xStation5
At the first opening of the week, the market clearly defends the resistance line around 24,615 points and returns above the short-term trend line. For buyers, the key level to defend remains the trendline (orange). If sellers want to maintain the initiative and deepen the decline, it will be crucial to push the price down to the EMA200 level and the long-term trendline.
Company news:
- American Airlines (AAL.US): Disruptions in air and tourism traffic stemming from the conflict are weighing on airline stocks. Shares are down 4%.
- Amazon (AMZN.US): An Iranian missile hit one of AWS’s data centres, causing service disruptions in the Middle East region.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT.US): Defence contractors are rising on the escalation of the conflict. Shares are up more than 3%.
- Occidental (OXY.US): Producers are rising along with oil prices. Shares are up more than 3%.
- UniQure (QURE.US): The US regulator ordered the company to conduct additional studies on a new gene therapy for Huntington’s disease; shares are down 35%.
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