Index at 200-day EMA Before Critical US Labor Market Data
The final trading session of each month's first week brings the publication of crucial US labor market data. Today's NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report could determine whether "risk assets" will close the weekly trading in positive territory and whether this momentum can extend into next week.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appWhat Is the Market Expecting?
-
US Average Hourly Earnings (y/y) (April): Forecast 3.9% vs Previous 3.8%
-
US Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) (April): Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.3%
-
US Non-Farm Payrolls (April): Forecast 138K vs Previous 228K
-
US Private Non-Farm Payrolls (April): Forecast 124K vs Previous 209K
-
US Unemployment Rate (April): Forecast 4.2% vs Previous 4.2%
The market anticipates a moderate April employment report, showing a slowdown in hiring momentum but sustained wage growth pressure. US Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to increase by 138K (down from 228K in the previous month), with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise to 3.9% y/y from 3.8% a month ago.
There are concerns that employment growth is declining as more sectors limit hiring due to increased economic uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariff policies. This primarily affects tourism and hospitality, as well as transportation and logistics. Only two sectors may record employment growth: construction and business services.
Potential Market Reaction?
A positive NFP report would strengthen the dollar and could delay Fed rate cuts until June. The dollar index has already broken above the 100.00 level, and USD/JPY has risen 1.6% following the BoJ's dovish stance and easing trade tensions between China and the US. Bloomberg Financial LP
The normal distribution of analyst forecasts for today's NFP data is skewed to the right (excluding extreme values), creating a chance for a higher-than-expected reading. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
US100 (D1)
The Nasdaq 100, represented by US100, is trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a key resistance zone. Bulls will aim to retest the 200- and 100-day moving averages, while bears will likely push to break the 19,195 level—a level that previously triggered an uptrend—with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator remains above the 48.5 level, which historically signaled a return to bullish momentum after crossing it. Meanwhile, the MACD is widening, indicating growing upward momentum.
Source: xStation
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
