Bitcoin is up 1.25% today, trading at $120,200. Ethereum is having an even stronger session, gaining 2.20% to $4,447, while the capitalization of other altcoins has risen 1.70% to $1.13 trillion.
Demand in the crypto market is driven by several factors. First, we have just entered the historically strongest quarter of the year for digital assets. Of the next three months, November has typically shown the strongest gains, suggesting that the current rally is not merely seasonal—especially as the trend began several days before October started. Second, equities and gold enjoyed a very strong summer rally, while the crypto market remained relatively subdued; the current move could represent a catch-up rebound. Third—and likely the most important catalyst—the U.S. government entered a shutdown yesterday. Bitcoin began rising as the likelihood of this scenario increased, and its price spiked sharply once the shutdown materialized. Investor uncertainty about U.S. markets appears to be channeling capital toward the alternative crypto space.
All three factors are likely contributing to the rally to varying degrees. On top of that, the Fed’s shift toward monetary easing, with additional rate cuts expected in October and November, is also providing support. Bitcoin now faces a key resistance level around $120,500, which successfully capped gains in July and August. Given the rapid surge in recent days, some profit-taking by investors cannot be ruled out.
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