US CPI inflation data came in above expectations, fueling concerns about further price pressures in the US economy. Both headline and underlying monthly inflation measures surprised to the upside. US100 and US500 index futures edged lower following the release, while US dollar surges, pressuring the EURUSD pair lower.
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US headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m versus 0.3% expected and 0.6% previously, while core CPI increased 0.3% m/m, unchanged from the previous reading.
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Food prices rose 0.5%, energy prices increased 0.7% and gasoline prices climbed 1.0%, while shelter costs advanced 0.3% and real earnings for private-sector workers remained unchanged.
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Earlier, the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97 points versus 98.2 expected and 97.9 previously, while the weekly ADP employment change came in at +19,750 compared with +16,750 previously; no consensus estimate was available.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October CPI report would not include year-over-year figures due to data gaps caused by the US government shutdown in October 2025. As a result, the BLS will publish only monthly inflation readings.
Ahead of the US inflation release, a Reuters poll showed that 29 of 37 economists believed risks to the medium-term US inflation outlook had not changed since the midterm elections. Meanwhile, 56 of 101 economists expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 4.00%–4.25% during the current hiking cycle, suggesting only a relatively weak consensus that rates will rise by no more than another 25 basis points from current levels. All economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December.
Source: xStation5
Source: XTB Research
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