01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for August:
- CPI: actual 0.4% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
- CPI: actual 2.9% YoY; forecast 2.9% YoY; previous 2.7% YoY;
- Core CPI: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- Core CPI: actual 3.1% YoY; forecast 3.1% YoY; previous 3.1% YoY;
EURUSD is gaining after the release, even though the market had partly expected below-consensus data following yesterday’s PPI surprise. The figures are in line with expectations, and a rate cut by the Fed next week now seems all but certain. However, we should not expect a move larger than 25 bps.
01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for August:
-
Initial Jobless Claims: actual 263K; forecast 235K; previous 236K;
The reaction in EURUSD is driven more by the sharp rise in jobless claims, which is the highest reading since October 2021. Combined with weaker NFP and ADP data, this picture sends a clear signal to the Fed to focus on the second leg of its dual mandate—the unemployment side. The CPI figures were in line with expectations and, for now, should not be a major cause for concern for Fed policymakers.
Now, traders fully price in three fed rate cuts by end-2025.
💶European PMI Plunges as Iran Conflict Batters Economic Activity
Chart of the Day: Where Is the Yen Heading in the Shadow of Hormuz and the BOJ?
Stocks slip, as new phase of Iran war drags on, Tesla fails to impress with AI plans
Economic Calendar: PMI in Focus, a Key Day for Global Markets
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
