Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is set to announce its final rate decision of 2022 today at 11:00 am GMT. CBRT is expected to leave the main one-week repo rate unchanged at 9.00% at today's meeting. This comes after 4 rate cuts in a row with the latest one being 150 bp cut in November. Bank is under significant political pressure to cut rates and continues to look past an over-80% inflation rate. Holding rates unchanged today could give investors' some comfort and see TRY gain. However, another cut could add to TRY woes and see EURTRY jump above the upper limit of trading range.
Taking a look at EURTRY at H1 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in a 19.75-19.90 range for over a week now. The pair has climbed recently and is making another attempt at the resistance zone marking the upper limit of the range. CBRT decision could provide a fuel for an upside breakout should it surprise to the dovish side (i.e. unexpected rate cut). However, should CBRT meet expectations, do not cut rates and signals that no rate cut is coming soon, EURTRY could pull back from the aforementioned resistance and look towards the lower limit of the range.
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Source: xStation5
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