The euro-dollar pair is experiencing strong gains today, rising over 0.65% and breaking above the psychological resistance level around 1.09. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, while U.S. Treasury yields have declined. In a statement on its earnings, Delta Air Lines reported that domestic flight demand has weakened, indicating signs of a weakening consumer. The airline's shares are down nearly 10% in pre-market trading.
- Although this information is secondary, it does highlight that concerns about a U.S. recession are not entirely unfounded. Meanwhile, tariffs are likely to slow economic growth and squeeze American household budgets. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDIDX) is down 0.45%.
- The broader economic dynamics of the eurozone and the U.S., combined with expectations of an infrastructure boost in Europe, supported by new defense programs, seem to partially justify the largely speculative movements in the EUR/USD pair.
- Today, U.S.-Ukraine talks have also begun in Saudi Arabia, with Russia set to be informed of their outcomes. We can also expect EUR/USD to react positively in the event of a potential ceasefire agreement and the development of a political consensus on an additional infrastructure-defense program in Germany.
EUR/USD (D1 Chart Analysis)
We observe that EUR/USD halted its decline around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 bullish impulse, near 1.02. Today, the pair has surpassed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, potentially paving the way for a test of the 1.10 - 1.11 range, a historically significant price reaction zone. Key medium-term support remains at the 200-day EMA, reinforced by Fibonacci retracement levels, around 1.066. Volatility may increase around 2 PM GMT, as the JOLTS job openings report from the U.S. labor market is released.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appSource: xStation5
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
