EURUSD gained as much as 0.3% after the release of PMI data, rebounding from key support around 1.163. The pair therefore remains within the consolidation that has persisted since early August, showing resilience to mixed signals from the Fed and rapidly evolving market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appPMI data helped EURUSD defend the 1.165 level, slightly below the midpoint of the current consolidation. Following the rebound, the pair is trading in a narrow range between the 30- and 100-period exponential moving averages on the H4 chart. RSI is neutral around the 50 level. Source: xStation5
What is shaping EURUSD today?
-
PMI reports for the euro area’s largest economies indicated an unexpected acceleration in private sector activity, particularly in manufacturing. The slump in French industry eased (49.9) after months of readings well below 50, while German manufacturing recorded its strongest production growth in over three years.
-
The European recovery justifies the ECB’s current pause in rate cuts, announced after its latest decision. According to President Christine Lagarde, the current 2–2.15% range is adequate given inflation being on target and visible signs of improving economic momentum. This tempers market expectations that the ECB may be forced to cut rates below 2% due to the risk of stagnation from Donald Trump’s tariffs.
-
However, tomorrow’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole could break the consolidation. A hawkish stance on recent inflation data and/or downplaying the record NFP revisions could push EURUSD back below 1.163. Conversely, even the absence of major shifts in the Fed’s narrative may encourage buyers to position for further U.S. rate cuts.
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
